Soybean Meal Futures Market News and Commentary
Soybean futures ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, pressured by product values. May was down 0.6% on the week. Meal futures were down 30 cents/ton, with soy oil 44 points lower. Nearby soy oil lost 2.62% this week. Money managers in soybean futures and options backed off their net short position by 26,205 contracts as of Tuesday to a net position of -63,992 contracts. US soybean acres were estimated at 85.9 million acres according to a Farm Futures survey of producers. Export commitments for soybeans are down 17% from the same time last year. Compared to USDA’s projection they are 81% complete vs. the 92% average for this time of year.May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.03 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.17 1/4, down 7 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/4, down 7 cents,Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.37 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $315.00, down $0.30,May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.66, down $0.44 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.