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Soybean Oil Dec '18 (ZLZ18)

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Soybean Oil Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures closed with 3 to 3 3/4 cent losses in most front months on Monday. Meal futures were down $1/ton, with soy oil up 1 point. USDA showed Export Inspections of 841,888 MT to all destinations during the week of March 14. That was slightly lower than a week ago but 68.23% larger than the same week last year. Of that total, 268,930 MT was headed to China, with 173,737 MT shipped to Egypt. Heavy rains have slowed the Brazilian harvest in Parana state (Brazil) but the country as a whole is still further advanced than average for this date. Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil’s soybean harvest at 61.8% complete, vs. the 55.1% average. They also project the 2018/19 production total at 115.85 MMT.May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.25 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.39, down 3 1/2 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $309.80, down $1.00,May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.44, up $0.01--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean Oil
Contract Size
60,000 pounds
Tick Size
0.01 points ($6.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$600
Margin/Maintenance
$539/490
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybean Oil Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
191,034 (-9,815)
242,913 (-7,359)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
124,325 (+6,240)
77,344 (+2,547)
Producers - Long / Short
80,035 (-7,575)
229,848 (-6,159)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
102,522 (+122)
4,588 (+1,162)
Managed Money - Long / Short
76,082 (+2,420)
57,577 (+3,835)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
48,243 (+3,820)
19,767 (-1,288)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
26.95 +5.34%
on 11/27/18
28.90 -1.76%
on 12/12/18
+0.82 (+2.97%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
26.95 +5.34%
on 11/27/18
30.01 -5.40%
on 10/04/18
+0.63 (+2.27%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
26.95 +5.34%
on 11/27/18
34.16 -16.89%
on 01/05/18
-4.97 (-14.90%)
since 12/14/17

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Corn futures saw fractional to 1 3/4 cent losses in most contracts on Monday. Midwest flooding is further delaying the likely start of planting. It is still very early, however. The weekly Export Inspections...

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Soybean futures closed with 3 to 3 3/4 cent losses in most front months on Monday. Meal futures were down $1/ton, with soy oil up 1 point. USDA showed Export Inspections of 841,888 MT to all destinations...

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Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are down 4 to 5 cents at midday. Meal futures are $1.10/ton lower, with soy oil 7 points in the red. USDA showed Export Inspections of 841,888 MT to all destinations during the week of...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

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Grains Report 03/18/19

WHEAT General Comments Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices closed slightly lower for the week. Chicago SRW prices are now [...]

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Opinion rating is a Hold. Short term, the outlook is Falling.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 28.39
1st Resistance Point 28.39
Last Price 28.39s
1st Support Level 28.39
2nd Support Level 28.39

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52-Week High 34.16
Fibonacci 61.8% 31.41
Fibonacci 50% 30.56
Fibonacci 38.2% 29.70
Last Price 28.39s
52-Week Low 26.95

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