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Corn Dec '18 (ZCZ18)

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Corn Futures Market News and Commentary

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures saw 1 to 2 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with May up 1.34% this week. A private export sale of 300,000 MT of corn for 2018/19 delivery to China was announced by the USDA this morning. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options extended their record reported net short position for the week that ended on 3/19 to 261,326 contracts. An updated Farm Futures survey released this morning indicated 90.9 million planted corn acres for 2019. A Reuters report estimates ~13% of the US ethanol capacity is offline at the moment due to the recent flooding and both bridge and rail damage. Total export commitments for corn are 7.4% below this time last year. They are 69% of the USDA projected full year amount vs. the average of 78% for this date.May 19 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 2 cents,Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, up 2 cents,Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.93 1/4, up 1 1/2 centsDec 19 Corn closed at $4.00, up 1 1/4 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Corn
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$770/700
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Corn Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
747,849 (+22,545)
691,315 (+32,203)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
433,114 (-1,344)
533,809 (-2,966)
Producers - Long / Short
515,660 (+16,067)
591,460 (+14,566)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
146,566 (-11,296)
14,232 (-137)
Managed Money - Long / Short
196,687 (-3,749)
479,532 (-3,885)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
236,427 (+2,405)
54,277 (+919)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
355-2 +6.05%
on 11/26/18
379-0 -0.59%
on 12/14/18
+9-6 (+2.66%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
342-4 +10.00%
on 09/18/18
379-0 -0.59%
on 12/14/18
+25-0 (+7.11%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
342-4 +10.00%
on 09/18/18
429-4 -12.28%
on 05/24/18
-4-0 (-1.05%)
since 12/14/17

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Most Recent Stories

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Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, pressured by product values. May was down 0.6% on the week. Meal futures were down 30 cents/ton, with soy oil 44...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures settled with most winter wheat contracts steady to 2 cents lower, as MPLS was mixed. Strength in the dollar pressured the market. Front month CBT and KC saw slight gains this week, with MPLS...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures saw 1 to 2 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with May up 1.34% this week. A private export sale of 300,000 MT of corn for 2018/19 delivery to China was announced by the USDA this morning....

Livestock Report

Bearish Cattle on Feed?

Grain Spreads:China Buys U.S. Corn

Balance Sheet Changes to Spur Prices?

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are showing 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts at Friday’s midday. Meal futures are down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 39 points lower. US soybean acres are estimated at 85.9 million...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 381-3
1st Resistance Point 379-1
Last Price 376-6s
1st Support Level 374-3
2nd Support Level 371-7

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52-Week High 429-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 396-2
Fibonacci 50% 386-0
Last Price 376-6s
Fibonacci 38.2% 375-6
52-Week Low 342-4

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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