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Sugar #11 May '19 (SBK19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Recover on Expectations for Lower India Sugar Exports

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Friday closed up +0.07 (+0.56%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed up +0.20 (+0.06%). May NY sugar rebounded from a 1-week low Friday and May London sugar recovered from a 2-1/2 month low and closed higher on expectations that India's sugar exports may be less than government estimates. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) sees India 2018/19 sugar exports at 3.0-3.5 MMT, below the government's quota of 5 MMT as sugar mills close for the season. The ISMA reported Friday that 85 India sugar mills in the state of Maharashtra, India's second-largest sugar producing region, have closed as of March 15 versus 38 mills that closed a year earlier, and that 56 sugar mills closed by March 15 in Karnataka, India's third-biggest sugar-producing region, versus 48 mills that closed a year earlier. Gains in sugar prices were limited Friday by the slide in the Brazilian real to a 2-week low against the dollar, which encourages exports by Brazil's sugar producers. Also, weakness in crude prices is another negative for sugar prices. Lower crude oil prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to sugar production than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. Sugar prices continue to see negative carry-over from Tuesday's news that the All India Sugar Trade Association raised its 2018/19 sugar production estimate for India, now the world's largest sugar producer, to 32.6 MMT from a Jan estimate of 31.5 MMT and above the Indian Sugar Mills Association's estimate of 30.7 MMT. Also, India's Sugar Mills Association on Monday reported that India sugar production during Oct 1-Mar 15 rose +5.9% y/y to 27.35 MMT.Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: Bullish factors for sugar include (1) concern about smaller global production after Unica forecasted that Brazil's Center South 2018/19 sugar production will fall -28% y/y to 26 MMT, (2) increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y, and (3) stronger demand for Brazil's ethanol after Unica reported Brazil millers sold 1.72 billion liters of hydrous ethanol in the domestic market in Feb, up +47% y/y and a record volume for a February, which implies less Brazilian sugar production. Bearish factors include (1) ISO's forecast that global 2018/19 sugar production will rise +0.6% y/y to a record 185.2 MMT and that there will be a 2018/19 sugar surplus of 2.2 MMT (vs 2017/18's 7.3 MMT), (2) USDA's FAS forecast for 2018/19 sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, to climb +5.3% y/y to a record 35.9 MMT, and (3) record sugar output from Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer, after the Thailand Office of Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand 2017/18 sugar production rose to a record 14.47 MMT.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
05/01/19 (38 days)
Expiration Date
04/30/19 (37 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
514,433 (+31,737)
468,138 (+44,898)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
173,724 (-2,578)
229,191 (-13,098)
Producers - Long / Short
301,226 (+29,532)
416,657 (+30,222)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
186,806 (-9,893)
25,080 (+2,578)
Managed Money - Long / Short
116,812 (+4,522)
217,274 (-12,207)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
56,912 (-7,100)
11,917 (-891)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.08 +4.06%
on 03/07/19
13.36 -5.91%
on 02/25/19
-0.73 (-5.49%)
since 02/22/19
3-Month
11.82 +6.35%
on 01/03/19
13.42 -6.33%
on 02/20/19
+0.17 (+1.37%)
since 12/21/18
52-Week
10.94 +14.90%
on 09/27/18
14.48 -13.19%
on 03/28/18
-1.87 (-12.95%)
since 03/22/18

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Sugar Prices Recover on Expectations for Lower India Sugar Exports

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Friday closed up +0.07 (+0.56%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed up +0.20 (+0.06%). May NY sugar rebounded from a 1-week low Friday and May London sugar...

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Sugar Prices Recover on Expectations for Lower India Sugar Exports

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) this morning is up +0.10 (+0.80%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) is up +0.80 (+0.24%). May NY sugar rebounded from a 1-week low this morning and May London sugar...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 12.84
1st Resistance Point 12.70
Last Price 12.57s
1st Support Level 12.43
2nd Support Level 12.30

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52-Week High 14.48
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.13
Fibonacci 50% 12.71
Last Price 12.57s
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.29
52-Week Low 10.94

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