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Sugar #11 May '19 (SBK19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Show Weakness on Strong Brazilian Production

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Monday fell to a new 1-week low and closed the day -0.09 (-0.77%). May ICE London white sugar #5 (SWK19) fell to a new 2-3/4 month low and closed -2.90 (-0.86%). High sugar production in Brazil continued to weigh on sugar prices after Platts on Monday released an analyst survey showing consensus expectations for a +7.7% yr/yr increase to 28.5 MMT in sugar production in 2019/20 (starting April 1) in Brazil's Center-South region. In addition, Platts Kingsman later on Monday raised its forecast for the 2018-19 sugar surplus to 5.5 MMT from Jan's forecast of 3.2 MMT due to bigger-than-expected sugar production by India of a record 32.9 MMT vs its Feb forecast of 32.3 MMT. Also on the bearish side, Platts Kingsman reduced its projected 2019-20 global sugar deficit to 1.9 MMT from Feb's 3.6 MMT due to reduced consumption estimates and higher output by Russia, Iran, and Egypt. Sugar prices on Monday were also undercut by mildly lower crude oil prices, which suggests lower ethanol prices, lower Brazilian ethanol production, and higher Brazilian sugar production. Sugar prices early Monday were pressured by early drop in the Brazilian real to a new 3-month low, but then sugar then found some underlying support as the real more than recovered its losses and closed the day up +0.7%. Monday's higher real discourages exports by Brazil's sugar producers, thus reducing global sugar supplies.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
05/01/19 (36 days)
Expiration Date
04/30/19 (35 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
514,433 (+31,737)
468,138 (+44,898)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
173,724 (-2,578)
229,191 (-13,098)
Producers - Long / Short
301,226 (+29,532)
416,657 (+30,222)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
186,806 (-9,893)
25,080 (+2,578)
Managed Money - Long / Short
116,812 (+4,522)
217,274 (-12,207)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
56,912 (-7,100)
11,917 (-891)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.08 +3.31%
on 03/07/19
13.00 -4.00%
on 02/28/19
-0.37 (-2.88%)
since 02/26/19
3-Month
11.82 +5.58%
on 01/03/19
13.42 -7.00%
on 02/20/19
+0.05 (+0.40%)
since 12/26/18
52-Week
10.94 +14.08%
on 09/27/18
14.48 -13.81%
on 03/28/18
-1.74 (-12.24%)
since 03/26/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 12.75
1st Resistance Point 12.62
Last Price 12.46
1st Support Level 12.34
2nd Support Level 12.19

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52-Week High 14.48
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.13
Fibonacci 50% 12.71
Last Price 12.46
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.29
52-Week Low 10.94

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