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Sugar #11 May '19 (SBK19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Rally on Support from Real

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Friday closed up +0.10 (+0.76%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed up +3.30 (+0.93%). Sugar prices moved higher Friday on the heels of a rally in crude oil to a 3-1/4 month high. Higher crude prices benefits ethanol prices, which may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies. Also, strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar Friday supported sugar prices since that discourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. May NY sugar rallied to a 3-1/2 month high and May London sugar rose to a 1-month high Wednesday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar. Also, increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, fueled fund buying of sugar after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd projected on Tuesday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Sugar prices have underlying support from Unica's report Feb 12 that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: Bullish factors for sugar include (1) concern about smaller global production after Unica forecasted that Brazil's Center South 2018/19 sugar production will fall -28% y/y to 26 MMT, (2) increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y, and (3) stronger demand for Brazil's ethanol after Unica reported Brazil millers sold 1.83 billion liters of hydrous ethanol in the domestic market in Jan, up +32.5% y/y and a record volume for a January, which implies less Brazilian sugar production. Bearish factors include (1) ISO's forecast that global 2018/19 sugar production will rise +0.6% y/y to a record 185.2 MMT and that there will be a 2018/19 sugar surplus of 2.2 MMT (vs 2017/18's 7.3 MMT), (2) USDA's FAS forecast for 2018/19 sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, to climb +5.3% y/y to a record 35.9 MMT, and (3) record sugar output from Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer, after the Thailand Office of Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand 2017/18 sugar production rose to a record 14.47 MMT.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
05/01/19 (67 days)
Expiration Date
04/30/19 (66 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Feb 5, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
541,126 (+14,167)
552,397 (+14,845)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
160,064 (+6,190)
169,359 (+7,935)
Producers - Long / Short
315,288 (+8,135)
484,839 (+9,404)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
189,739 (-226)
31,459 (-817)
Managed Money - Long / Short
111,615 (+8,054)
151,020 (+8,209)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
48,449 (-1,864)
18,339 (-274)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.34 +7.78%
on 02/14/19
13.42 -0.89%
on 02/20/19
+0.24 (+1.84%)
since 01/22/19
3-Month
11.82 +12.52%
on 01/03/19
13.42 -0.89%
on 02/20/19
+0.52 (+4.07%)
since 11/21/18
52-Week
10.94 +21.57%
on 09/27/18
14.95 -11.04%
on 03/06/18
-1.47 (-9.95%)
since 02/22/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 13.49
1st Resistance Point 13.40
Last Price 13.30s
1st Support Level 13.18
2nd Support Level 13.05

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52-Week High 14.95
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.42
Last Price 13.30s
Fibonacci 50% 12.94
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.47
52-Week Low 10.94

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