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Sugar #11 May '19 (SBK19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Move Lower on Weakness in the Brazilian Real and Crude Oil Prices

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Thursday closed down -0.18 (-1.35%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed down -3.80 (-1.06%). Sugar prices moved lower Thursday after weakness in the Brazilian real and in crude oil prices sparked long liquidation in sugar futures. The Brazilian real fell to a 1-week low against the dollar Thursday, which encourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Crude prices also moved lower Thursday, which is negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. May NY sugar rallied to a 3-1/2 month high and May London sugar rose to a 1-month high Wednesday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar. Also, increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, fueled fund buying of sugar after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd projected on Tuesday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Sugar prices have underlying support from Unica's report last Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #11
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
2:30a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 11:55a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$1,047/952
First Notice Date
05/01/19 (69 days)
Expiration Date
04/30/19 (68 days)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #11 May '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jan 29, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
526,959 (+16,858)
537,552 (+4,903)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
153,874 (-508)
161,424 (+9,902)
Producers - Long / Short
307,153 (+13,369)
475,435 (+7,852)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
189,965 (+5,364)
32,276 (-1,074)
Managed Money - Long / Short
103,561 (-348)
142,811 (+9,349)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
50,313 (-160)
18,613 (+553)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
12.34 +6.97%
on 02/14/19
13.42 -1.64%
on 02/20/19
+0.04 (+0.30%)
since 01/18/19
3-Month
11.82 +11.68%
on 01/03/19
13.42 -1.64%
on 02/20/19
+0.42 (+3.29%)
since 11/21/18
52-Week
10.94 +20.66%
on 09/27/18
14.95 -11.71%
on 03/06/18
-1.46 (-9.96%)
since 02/21/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 13.49
1st Resistance Point 13.35
Last Price 13.20s
1st Support Level 13.09
2nd Support Level 12.97

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52-Week High 14.95
Fibonacci 61.8% 13.42
Last Price 13.20s
Fibonacci 50% 12.94
Fibonacci 38.2% 12.47
52-Week Low 10.94

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