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Robusta Coffee 10-T Jan '19 (RMF19)

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cmdty Insider - Robusta Coffee 10-T Market Commentary


Dec arabica coffee (KCZ18) this morning is up +1.60 (+1.45%) and Jan ICE robusta coffee (RMZ18) is down -6 (-0.36%). Dollar weakness is positive for coffee prices as the dollar index tumbled to a 1-week low this morning. Also, U.S. coffee supplies are tighter after the Green Coffee Association reported that U.S. Oct green coffee inventories fell -12.2% y/y to a 2-1/4 year low of 6.177 mln bags. Prices have been under pressure this week and posted a 5-week low Tuesday on the outlook for robust supplies. ICE-monitored coffee inventories continue to climb and rose to a 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags on Thursday. In addition, ample rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee region, is weighing on arabica coffee prices after Somar Meteorologia reported that rainfall in Minas Gerais totaled 50.7 mm in the past week, or 112% of the historical average. A negative factor for robusta coffee prices is increased supply from Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported Monday that Vietnam Jan-Oct coffee exports rose +21.2% y/y to 1.57 MMT.
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