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Robusta Coffee 10-T May '19 (RMK19)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Fall Further on Robust Supply and Weakness in the Brazilian Real

May arabica coffee (KCK19) on Friday closed down -0.90 (-0.95%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed down -9 (-0.60%). May arabica coffee slumped to a new contract low Friday and May robusta held just above the March 15 contract low on ample coffee supplies and rain in Brazil. Researcher Cepea on Wednesday projected Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports will climb to a record 40 mln bags. Also, weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar Friday weighed on coffee prices as the real dropped to a 2-week low against the dollar. A weaker real encourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. Current supplies are abundant as ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.5 mln bags on Tuesday and CeCafe reported last Wednesday that Brazil Feb arabica coffee exports jumped +40.5% y/y to 3.1 mln bags. In addition, abundant rainfall in Brazil is benefiting Brazil's coffee crops after data from Somar Meteorologia on Monday showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee growing region, measured 56.8 mm in the past week, or 131% of the historical average. A positive factor for coffee was last Friday's data from the Green Coffee Association that showed U.S. Feb green coffee inventories fell -4% y/y to 6.26 mln bags. A positive factor for robusta coffee is smaller robusta supply after recent data from Vietnam's Department of Customs showed that Vietnam Jan-Feb coffee exports fell -10.1% y/y to 317,148 MT.Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, and (2) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) researcher Cepea's projection that Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports will climb to a record 40 mln bags, (2) ample supplies as ICO data showed that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Jan rose +6.6% y/y at 41.96 mln bags, (3) ICO's forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months, (4) heavy coffee supply as ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.5 mln bags, and (5) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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