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Robusta Coffee 10-T Mar '19 (RMH19)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Friday closed up +2.55 (+2.49%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed up +9 (+0.59%). Coffee prices rallied to 1-week highs Friday on positive carry-over from Thursday's projections from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle. Also, the Green Coffee Association reported Wednesday that U.S. Dec green coffee inventories fell -7.5% y/y to 6.13 mln bags. In addition, crop concerns remain after data from Somar Meteorolgia showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais measured 9.5 mm in the past week, only 13% of the historical average. Coffee prices posted 2-week lows Tuesday after Cecafe reported Brazil Dec green coffee exports surged +27% y/y to 3.36 mln bags, the highest ever for a December. An overabundance of coffee supply is limiting rallies as ICE-monitored coffee inventories Friday climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.477 mln bags. Robusta coffee has support on signs of smaller robusta supplies after Vietnam Dec robusta coffee exports fell -6.1% y/y to 153,906 MT. The outlook for a record coffee crop in Brazil and a global supply glut is a major bearish factor for coffee prices. Conab, Brazil's national supply agency, recently raised its Brazil 2018/19 coffee production estimate to a record 61.7 mln bags (+37% y/y) from a Sep forecast of 59.9 mln bags.Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, (2) ICO's forecast for a 2017/18 global coffee deficit of -3.5 mln bags, and (3) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) the +27% y/y surge in Brazil Dec green coffee exports to 3.36 mln bags, the highest ever for a December, (2) ample supplies as ICO data showed global 2017/18 coffee exports rose +2% y/y to 121.9 mln bags and global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Nov are up +13% y/y to 20.6 mln bags, (3) ICO's forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months (4) overabundance of coffee supply as ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.477 mln bags, (5) Conab projections for Brazil's 2018 coffee production to climb +37% y/y to a record 61.7 mln bags as crops are in the higher-yielding half of their biennial cycle, and (6) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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