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Robusta Coffee 10-T May '19 (RMK19)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Friday closed up +0.10 (+0.10%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed up +17 (+1.12%). Coffee prices moved higher Friday as strength in the Brazilian real sparked short-covering in coffee futures. The Brazilian real climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar Friday, which discourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. Mar arabica coffee on Thursday fell to a 1-3/4 month nearest-futures low due to ample rain in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee region. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that 46.8 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais during the week, or 100% of the historical average, which should boost soil moisture levels and coffee yields. Coffee prices are also seeing downward pressure from ample coffee supplies after exporter group CeCafe on Monday reported that Brazil Jan green coffee exports rose +20% y/y to 3.05 mln bags, a record high for the month of January. Also, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Monday reported that global coffee exports during Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags posted on Jan 23.Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, (2) ICO's forecast for a 2017/18 global coffee deficit of -3.5 mln bags, and (3) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) the +20% y/y surge in Brazil Jan green coffee exports to 3.05 mln bags, the highest ever for a January, (2) ample supplies as ICO data showed that global 2017/18 coffee exports rose +2% y/y to 121.9 mln bags and that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags, (3) ICO's forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months, (4) heavy coffee supply as ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags, (5) Conab projections for Brazil's 2018 coffee production to climb +37% y/y to a record 61.7 mln bags as crops are in the higher-yielding half of their biennial cycle, and (6) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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