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Gasoline RBOB Jan '19 (RBF19)

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Gasoline RBOB Futures Market News and Commentary

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Friday closed up sharply by +$1.12 per barrel (+2.18%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed up +$1.37 (+2.28%). Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed up by +5.24 cents per gallon (+3.66%). The energy complex rallied sharply Friday with Jan gasoline at a 2-week high after OPEC+ agreed to a larger-than-expected cut in crude output. OPEC+ said at Friday's meeting in Vienna that they agreed to cut crude production by -1.2 million bpd, a bigger cut than the -1.0 million bpd cut in production proposed by Saudi Arabia. Crude prices also moved higher Friday on a weaker dollar and an increase in the crack spread to a 2-week high, which boosts the incentive for refiners to purchase crude to refine into gasoline. Crude prices also have support from Thursday's weekly EIA data that showed U.S. crude inventories plunged by -7.23 million bbl, a much bigger than decline than expectations of -2.0 million bbl.Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the reinstatement of full U.S. sanctions on Iran as of Nov 5, although the U.S. gave waivers to 8 countries for up to 1.25 mln bpd of Iranian exports, (2) the agreement by OPEC+ on Dec 7 to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million bpd for the first six months of 2019 (Jan-June) (800,000 bpd for OPEC members), which should soak up much of the expected 2019 global oil surplus, and (3) the 50% drop in Venezuelan production seen since 2016. Bearish factors include (1) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 11.7 million bpd, and (2) increased U.S. crude exports that add to global supplies after U.S. crude exports in the week ended Nov 30 rose +761,000 bpd to a record 3.203 million bpd.
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