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Natural Gas Feb '26 (NGG26)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Closes Lower on Forecasts for Warmer U.S. Temperatures

Apr Nymex natural gas (NGJ19) on Friday closed down by -0.068 (-2.41%). Apr nat-gas dropped to a 1-month low Friday on the outlook for warmer U.S. weather after NOAA forecast above-normal temperatures for most of the U.S. during March 27-31. AccuWeather said the low in Philadelphia on March 30 may be 49 degrees Fahrenheit (9 degrees Celsius), 10 degrees above normal. Also, Radiant Solutions forecasts "warm anomalies" will persist in the Northeast from April 1-5. Increased U.S. nat-gas output is another negative as Friday's data showed U.S. lower-48-state nat-gas production at 84.156 bcf, up +6.0% y/y. In addition, the April-May nat-gas futures spread remained negative Friday and has been negative since Jan 30. A negative spread suggests nat-gas supplies will be ample by the end of the heating season. Finally, a rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high Friday undercut most commodity prices, including nat-gas. U.S. nat-gas inventories continue to shrink as nat-gas stockpiles on Mar 15 stood at a 4-3/4 year low of 1.143 tcf, down -21.0% y/y and -32.7% below the 5-year average. Thursday's weekly EIA report showed that nat-gas inventories fell -47 bcf, close to expectations of -48 bcf but a bit less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -56 bcf.Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) tight U.S. working gas inventories that as of Mar 15 stood at a 4-3/4 year low of 1.143 tcf, -32.7% below the 5-year average, (2) strong global natural gas demand due to firm global economic growth and the need to substitute for coal to reduce global CO2 emissions, and (3) significant U.S. nat-gas export potential as U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to a 2-3/4 month high of 5.127 bcf and are up by +19% so far this year. Bearish factors include (1) near-record U.S. natural gas production and forecasts for production growth of +3% in 2019, (2) the fact that the April-May nat-gas futures spread has been in negative territory since Jan 30, which suggests nat-gas supplies will be abundant by the end of the heating season, and (3) China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. LNG, which substantially reduces the potential for U.S. LNG exports to China, although China as part of the Dec 1 US/Chinese tariff ceasefire agreed to start buying U.S. LNG.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$2,035/1,850
First Notice Date
01/29/26 (2504 days)
Expiration Date
01/28/26 (2503 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Feb '26
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Feb Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
545,180 (-13,314)
553,686 (-14,593)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
269,937 (+10,561)
300,172 (+15,215)
Producers - Long / Short
239,692 (-6,157)
275,047 (-15,219)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
171,641 (+29)
144,792 (+7,812)
Managed Money - Long / Short
239,504 (+10,580)
76,258 (+4,225)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
30,433 (-19)
223,914 (+10,990)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
3.132 +3.42%
on 02/26/19
3.249 -0.31%
on 03/21/19
+0.081 (+2.56%)
since 02/22/19
3-Month
3.111 +4.11%
on 01/24/19
3.249 -0.31%
on 03/21/19
+0.068 (+2.14%)
since 12/21/18
52-Week
2.988 +8.40%
on 09/04/18
3.323 -2.53%
on 03/29/18
-0.046 (-1.40%)
since 03/22/18

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Natural Gas Closes Lower on Forecasts for Warmer U.S. Temperatures

Apr Nymex natural gas (NGJ19) on Friday closed down by -0.068 (-2.41%). Apr nat-gas dropped to a 1-month low Friday on the outlook for warmer U.S. weather after NOAA forecast above-normal temperatures...

Crude Oil Declines on Dollar Strength and Demand Concerns

May WTI crude oil (CLK19) on Friday closed down -$0.94 (-1.57%) per barrel and May Brent crude (CBJ19) closed down -$0.83 (-1.22%). May RBOB gasoline (RBK19) closed down -0.40 cents per gallon (-0.21%)....

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Natural Gas Moves Lower on Forecasts for Warmer U.S. Temperatures

Apr Nymex natural gas (NGJ19) this morning is down by -0.037 (-1.31%). Nat-gas prices are moving lower today on the outlook for warmer U.S. weather after NOAA forecast above-normal temperatures for most...

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Natural Gas Closes Little Changed as Weekly EIA Inventories Show Expected Decline

Apr Nymex natural gas (NGJ19) on Thursday closed up by +0.001 (+0.04%). Nat-gas prices closed little changed Thursday after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories fell -47 bcf, close to expectations of -48 bcf,...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 3.239
1st Resistance Point 3.239
Last Price 3.239s
1st Support Level 3.239
2nd Support Level 3.239

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52-Week High 3.323
Last Price 3.239s
Fibonacci 61.8% 3.195
Fibonacci 50% 3.155
Fibonacci 38.2% 3.116
52-Week Low 2.988

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InsideFutures Commentary

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