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Natural Gas Feb '26 (NGG26)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Climb on Cold Weather and Expectations of Inventory Drop

Mar Nymex natural gas (NGH19) this morning is up by +0.044 (+1.67%). Nat-gas prices climbed to a 1-week high this morning on expectations for colder weather in the U.S. along with expectations for a larger-than-normal drawdown in weekly nat-gas inventories. NOAA has forecasted colder-than-normal temperature across the western and midwestern U.S. from Feb 26-Mar 2, which should increase heating demand for nat-gas. Also, Radiant Solutions is forecasting below-normal temperatures from California to the Great Lakes from March 1 through March 5 with a forecasted low in Chicago of 11 degrees Fahrenheit (-12 degrees Celsius) on Mar 2, 15 degrees below normal. Today's weekly EIA nat-gas inventory report is expected to decline by -169 bcf in the week of Feb 15, a larger decline than the 5-year average decline of -148 bcf for this time of year. On the negative side, the March-April nat-gas futures spread remained negative by -3.1 cents today. A negative spread suggests nat-gas supplies will be ample by the end of the heating season. Another bearish factor is increased U.S. nat-gas output after today's data showed U.S. lower-48 state nat-gas production rose to 84.879 bcf, up +9.9% y/y. Nat-gas prices last Friday slipped to a 1-year low on signs of adequate supplies after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories last Thursday fell by only -78 bcf, much less than the 5-year average of a decline of -160 bcf. U.S. nat-gas stockpiles as of Feb 8 stood at an 8-month low of 1.882 tcf, down -0.1% y/y and -15.0% below the 5-year average.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,025/2,750
First Notice Date
01/29/26 (2534 days)
Expiration Date
01/28/26 (2533 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Feb '26
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Feb Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jan 29, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
558,022 (+32,345)
599,362 (+14,371)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
280,191 (-25,161)
280,011 (-7,457)
Producers - Long / Short
230,086 (+8,754)
276,138 (+13,689)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
166,871 (+8,539)
162,159 (-14,370)
Managed Money - Long / Short
246,025 (-10,676)
43,790 (-849)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
34,166 (-14,485)
236,221 (-6,608)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
3.111 +1.61%
on 01/24/19
3.191 -0.94%
on 02/14/19
+0.020 (+0.64%)
since 01/18/19
3-Month
3.111 +1.61%
on 01/24/19
3.209 -1.50%
on 11/30/18
+0.035 (+1.12%)
since 11/21/18
52-Week
2.988 +5.79%
on 09/04/18
3.323 -4.88%
on 03/29/18
-0.098 (-3.01%)
since 02/21/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 3.174
1st Resistance Point 3.174
Last Price 3.161
1st Support Level 3.174
2nd Support Level 3.174

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52-Week High 3.323
Fibonacci 61.8% 3.195
Last Price 3.161
Fibonacci 50% 3.155
Fibonacci 38.2% 3.116
52-Week Low 2.988

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