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Natural Gas Apr '19 (NGJ19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Extends Tuesday's Rally on Forecasts for Below-Average Temperatures

Mar Nymex natural gas (NGH19) this morning is up by +0.008 (+0.30%) and posted a new 1-week high. Nat-gas prices are higher this morning on NOAA forecasts for colder-than-normal temperature across the western and midwestern U.S. from Feb 25-Mar 1, which should increase heating demand for nat-gas. Also, Radiant Solutions is forecasting below-normal temperatures from California to the Great Lakes from March 1 through March 5 with a forecasted low in Chicago of 11 degrees Fahrenheit (-12 degrees Celsius) on Mar 2, 15 degrees below normal. In addition, signs of lower U.S. nat-gas output are bullish for prices after today's data showed that U.S. lower-48 state nat-gas production fell for a third day to a 1-1/2 week low of 83.873 bcf. Nat-gas prices last Friday slipped to a 1-year low on signs of adequate supplies after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories last Thursday fell by only -78 bcf, much less than the 5-year average of a decline of -160 bcf. Another bearish factor is the March-April nat-gas futures spread that remains negative by -2.9 cents today. A negative spread suggests nat-gas supplies will be ample by the end of the heating season. U.S. nat-gas stockpiles as of Feb 8 stood at an 8-month low of 1.882 tcf, down -0.1% y/y and -15.0% below the 5-year average.
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