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Natural Gas May '19 (NGK19)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Slide on Warmer Weather in Northern U.S.

Apr Nymex natural gas (NGJ19) this morning is down by -0.041 (-1.43%). Nat-gas prices are moving lower today on expectations for only an average drawdown in weekly U.S. nat-gas supplies. Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories report is expected to fall -54 bcf, close to the 5-year average for this time of year of -56 bcf. An increase in U.S. nat-gas output is another negative for prices after today's data showed U.S. lower-48-state nat-gas production at 83.841 bcf, up +5.3% y/y. Also, NOAA has forecasted above-normal temperatures across most of the northern U.S. from March 25-29, which should curb heating demand for nat-gas. In addition, the April-May nat-gas futures spread remained negative today and has been negative since Jan 30. A negative spread suggests nat-gas supplies will be ample by the end of the heating season. Apr nat-gas rallied to a 1-1/2 month nearest-futures high Tuesday on forecasts for colder-than-normal weather this week on the U.S East coast, which may further deplete already tight U.S. nat-gas supplies supply. Accuweather has forecast the low in New York city of 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) on March 22, 3 degrees below normal. U.S. nat-gas inventories fell by -204 bcf in the week ended Mar 8, a much larger draw than the 5-year average of -99 bcf and a record drop for this time of year. U.S. nat-gas inventories continue to shrink as nat-gas stockpiles on Mar 8 stood at a 4-3/4 year low of 1.186 tcf, down -22.6% y/y and -32.4% below the 5-year average.
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