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Spring Wheat Dec '18 (MWZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Spring Wheat Market Commentary

Mon Nov 12, 12:00PM CST
Wheat futures are 12 to 15 cents higher in the Chicago SRW this morning. Some traders cite problems with the French crop, but this appears to be primarily a technical correction. The other two markets are less enthusiastic but still up 6 to 8 cents. Trade ideas for winter wheat planting in Tuesday’s NASS report are running around 90%. The average pace would be 93%. Wheat exports are improving and are now only 15.5% lower than this week in 2017. Compared to the USDA export projection, they are 50% complete, vs. the typical 68% pace and 73% last year. CFTC indicated specs in Chicago wheat futures and options trimmed their net short position by 3,574 contracts in the week of 11/6 to -41,143 contracts.Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.18 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents,Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.94 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.81 1/4, up 8 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Hard Red Spring Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:30p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
MGEX
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (18 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (32 days)

Seasonal Chart

Spring Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 6, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
46,454 (+3,706)
37,701 (+2,865)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
13,450 (+61)
21,466 (+589)
Producers - Long / Short
42,802 (+3,804)
37,602 (+2,827)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
3,553 (-136)
0 (unch)
Managed Money - Long / Short
7,427 (-179)
13,473 (-556)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
6,023 (+240)
7,993 (+1,145)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
565-6 +2.96%
on 10/31/18
602-2 -3.28%
on 10/15/18
-13-4 (-2.27%)
since 10/12/18
3-Month
560-2 +3.97%
on 09/13/18
631-6 -7.80%
on 08/17/18
-43-4 (-6.95%)
since 08/10/18
52-Week
542-2 +7.42%
on 07/12/18
660-4 -11.81%
on 05/29/18
-66-2 (-10.21%)
since 11/10/17

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The Barchart Opinion rating is a Hold. Short term, the outlook is Bearish.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 590-7
1st Resistance Point 586-5
Last Price 582-4s
1st Support Level 575-1
2nd Support Level 567-7

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52-Week High 660-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 615-3
Fibonacci 50% 601-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 587-3
Last Price 582-4s
52-Week Low 542-2

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