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Spring Wheat Dec '18 (MWZ18)

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Spring Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures closed Thursday with most contracts steady to 3 cents higher, with a couple MPLS contracts fractionally lower. Strength in corn and short covering late in the session offset a stronger US dollar. All wheat old crop exports sales for the week of 3/14 were tallied at 298,574 MT this morning, below trade estimates but 12.58% larger than the same week a year ago. South Korea bought 75,500 MT, with reductions of 45,000 MT for Singapore (switched to Sri Lanka). New crop sales were reported at 138,816 MT, with total forward sales for 19/20 YTD up 11.6% over last year. Total export commitments are now 3.1% larger than the same time in 2018.May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.66 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.47, up 3 cents,May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.71 1/4, down 1/4 cent --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Hard Red Spring Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:30p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
MGEX
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,560/1,200
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Spring Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
36,456 (+78)
31,492 (+1,143)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
12,258 (+1,015)
18,392 (+763)
Producers - Long / Short
33,714 (-290)
31,487 (+1,150)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
2,737 (+375)
0 (unch)
Managed Money - Long / Short
6,849 (+734)
15,742 (+1,298)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
5,409 (+281)
2,650 (-535)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
567-0 +2.38%
on 11/29/18
590-6 -1.74%
on 12/03/18
+4-4 (+0.78%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
565-6 +2.61%
on 10/31/18
602-2 -3.61%
on 10/15/18
+8-2 (+1.44%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
542-2 +7.05%
on 07/12/18
660-4 -12.11%
on 05/29/18
-53-2 (-8.40%)
since 12/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 583-4
1st Resistance Point 582-0
Last Price 580-4s
1st Support Level 579-6
2nd Support Level 579-0

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52-Week High 660-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 615-3
Fibonacci 50% 601-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 587-3
Last Price 580-4s
52-Week Low 542-2

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