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Spring Wheat Mar '18 (MWH18)

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cmdty Insider - Spring Wheat Market Commentary

Mon Sep 24, 7:26AM CDT
Wheat futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning in the KC and CHI contracts, while spring wheat futures are fractionally mixed. They were down 1 to 2 1/4 cents in most KC and CBT contracts on Friday, with MPLS 5 to 6 cents lower. All three markets saw gains in the Dec contracts for the week, with CBT up 2%, KC 1.74% higher, and MPLS 1.79% in the green. Total export commitments for wheat have picked up over the past few weeks but are still lagging LY by 22%. USDA is projecting a 13.76% increase in exports from 17/18 to 18/19. Combined shipments and outstanding sales are now 37% of that projection of 1.025 bbu, with the typical pace at 55% by this time. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options flipped 19,794 contracts to a net short position of -1,379 contracts as of Tuesday. Their net position in KC futures and options was still long 37,084 contracts, but 6,455 fewer than the week prior. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their production estimate by 0.4 to 69.2 MMT for 2018 wheat production on Friday. Consultant SovEcon their estimate of Russia’s wheat exports by 0.9 to 33 MMT.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Hard Red Spring Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:30p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
MGEX
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,950/1,500
First Notice Date
02/27/18
Expiration Date
03/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Daily price change for Spring Wheat Mar '18
Average price change for the 5 prior Mar contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 18, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
32,762 (+695)
26,796 (-249)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
12,949 (+43)
16,212 (+1,305)
Producers - Long / Short
29,013 (+572)
26,753 (-247)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
3,706 (+125)
0 (unch)
Managed Money - Long / Short
7,078 (-73)
10,007 (+2,025)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
5,871 (+116)
6,205 (-720)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
592-4 +5.19%
on 02/26/18
636-0 -2.00%
on 03/14/18
+23-0 (+3.83%)
since 02/14/18
3-Month
592-4 +5.19%
on 02/26/18
636-0 -2.00%
on 03/14/18
+6-2 (+1.01%)
since 12/14/17
52-Week
555-0 +12.30%
on 04/11/17
816-0 -23.62%
on 07/05/17
+55-2 (+9.73%)
since 03/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 640-2
1st Resistance Point 631-6
Last Price 623-2s
1st Support Level 619-0
2nd Support Level 614-6

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52-Week High 816-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 716-2
Fibonacci 50% 685-4
Fibonacci 38.2% 654-6
Last Price 623-2s
52-Week Low 555-0

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