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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary


Wheat futures are showing 9 to 12 cent losses in the winter wheat contracts on Monday, with MPLS steady to 3 cents lower. All wheat export shipments in the week that ended on Nov 15 totaled 509,118 MT, according to Export Inspections data. That was nearly double the same week in 2017 and 47.25% larger than the previous week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated the managed money net short position in CBT wheat futures and options was trimmed by 14,459 contracts as of Tuesday to -26,684. Spec traders went the other way in KC wheat futures and options, flipping their net position to short -1,271 contracts, a move of -12,414 contracts. Turkey is seeking 240,000 MT of wheat in a tender that closes on Friday. Saudi Arabia purchased 495,000 MT of wheat in their tender last week, with US listed as an optional origin.Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.97 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents,Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.71 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents,Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.70 3/4, down 1/2 cent--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (11 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (25 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
143,090 (+2,700)
162,790 (-5,930)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
95,632 (-4,349)
77,977 (+6,241)
Producers - Long / Short
84,660 (-1,546)
141,282 (-7,228)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
44,762 (+2,586)
7,840 (-362)
Managed Money - Long / Short
64,603 (-4,599)
69,052 (+6,816)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
31,029 (+250)
8,925 (-575)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
470-0 +0.90%
on 11/19/18
515-6 -8.05%
on 10/22/18
-42-0 (-8.14%)
since 10/19/18
3-Month
470-0 +0.90%
on 11/19/18
594-2 -20.19%
on 08/20/18
-117-6 (-19.89%)
since 08/17/18
52-Week
470-0 +0.90%
on 11/19/18
626-0 -24.24%
on 08/07/18
-36-2 (-7.10%)
since 11/17/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell and ranks in the Top 1% of all short term signal directions.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly oversold territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 487-5
1st Resistance Point 485-1
Last Price 474-2s
1st Support Level 479-5
2nd Support Level 476-5

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 566-3
Fibonacci 50% 548-0
Fibonacci 38.2% 529-5
Last Price 474-2s
52-Week Low 470-0

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