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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary


Wheat futures are showing 6 to 10 cent losses in the winter wheat contracts on Turnaround Tuesday, with MPLS down 1 to 3 cents. The USDA indicated that 342,157 MT of wheat was shipped in the week that ended on 11/8. That was slightly higher than the prior week and 10.85% more than the same week in 2017. Japan is seeking 120,226 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their weekly MOA tender to close on Thursday, with 50,327 MT US origin. Iraq is exploring the idea of importing Russian wheat, shifting away from the US, Australia, and Canada. Commercial sources are reducing their Brazilian wheat production estimates to as low as 5.3 MMT, with expectations that imports from Argentina and elsewhere could total up to 7 MMT. Argentine wheat is currently cheaper than US origin offerings.Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.09 3/4, down 10 cents,Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.86 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.81 1/2, down 1 cent--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (17 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (31 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 6, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
140,390 (+6,587)
168,720 (+8,109)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
99,981 (+317)
71,736 (-2,169)
Producers - Long / Short
86,206 (+6,424)
148,510 (+8,025)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
42,176 (+53)
8,202 (-26)
Managed Money - Long / Short
69,202 (-874)
62,236 (-1,117)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
30,779 (+1,191)
9,500 (-1,052)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
483-2 +0.67%
on 11/13/18
533-2 -8.77%
on 10/16/18
-37-6 (-7.20%)
since 10/12/18
3-Month
483-2 +0.67%
on 11/13/18
596-0 -18.37%
on 08/17/18
-80-4 (-14.20%)
since 08/13/18
52-Week
478-2 +1.73%
on 12/12/17
626-0 -22.28%
on 08/07/18
-26-6 (-5.21%)
since 11/13/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 500-3
1st Resistance Point 493-3
Last Price 486-4s
1st Support Level 481-3
2nd Support Level 476-3

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 569-4
Fibonacci 50% 552-1
Fibonacci 38.2% 534-6
Last Price 486-4s
52-Week Low 478-2

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