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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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Hard Red Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary


Wheat futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. They sustained 4 to 6 1/4 cent losses in most CBT and MPLS contracts yesterday, with KC fractionally to 1 3/4 cents lower. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 418,460 MT shipped in the week that ended on 12/6. That was down 11.8% from last week but up 18% from this week in 2017. Total shipments YTD (404.17 mbu) are 16.24% lower than a year ago but have been gaining over the past several weeks. Analysts are expecting USDA to peg 18/19 world ending stocks at 266.5 MMT ahead of Tuesday’s monthly update, slightly lower than November. Delayed CFTC data showed spec traders in CBT wheat futures and options trimming their net short position as of last Tuesday by 10,206 contracts to -28,407 contracts. They also cut 7,227 contracts from their net short position in KC wheat to -2,445 contracts. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (3 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 27, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
121,561 (-7,136)
129,652 (-15,499)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
96,446 (-1,582)
91,781 (+8,013)
Producers - Long / Short
67,956 (-2,989)
114,676 (-12,054)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
44,440 (-453)
5,811 (+249)
Managed Money - Long / Short
71,768 (+5,053)
82,516 (+7,931)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
24,678 (-6,635)
9,265 (+82)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
456-6 +7.77%
on 11/27/18
496-2 -0.81%
on 11/12/18
+4-6 (+0.97%)
since 11/09/18
3-Month
456-6 +7.77%
on 11/27/18
534-2 -7.86%
on 09/24/18
-30-4 (-5.83%)
since 09/11/18
52-Week
456-6 +7.77%
on 11/27/18
626-0 -21.37%
on 08/07/18
+11-2 (+2.34%)
since 12/11/17

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December Reports are Usually Dull

Surprises?

Traders Quietly Wait for USDA Report Revisions

Traders Quietly Wait for USDA Report Revisions

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 488-1
1st Resistance Point 485-3
Last Price 492-2
1st Support Level 481-3
2nd Support Level 480-1

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 561-3
Fibonacci 50% 541-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 521-3
Last Price 492-2
52-Week Low 456-6

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