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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary

44 minutes ago
Wheat futures are showing losses of 3 to 6 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Pressure is apparent from spillover in corn and beans as this morning’s wheat export number was within expectations. A stronger US dollar is also a bearish influence. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed wheat sales in the week of 10/11 picking up 40.4% from the week prior at 475,998 MT. That was in the middle of estimates but still down 22.7% from last year. Japan’s weekly MOA tender saw purchases of 127,688 MT of US, Australian, and Canadian wheat, with 59,640 MT US specific.Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.11 1/2, down 6 cents,Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.15 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.85 1/4, down 3 cents--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Contract Specifications

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KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (43 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (57 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 9, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
108,466 (-2,587)
149,409 (-3,770)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
94,927 (-1,181)
54,693 (+1,056)
Producers - Long / Short
58,653 (-1,924)
134,342 (-480)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
42,688 (+906)
7,942 (-1,721)
Managed Money - Long / Short
64,770 (-1,374)
44,498 (+1,205)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
30,157 (+193)
10,195 (-149)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
506-4 +1.92%
on 10/01/18
534-2 -3.37%
on 09/24/18
+0-2 (+0.05%)
since 09/18/18
498-6 +3.51%
on 09/13/18
626-0 -17.53%
on 08/07/18
+3-2 (+0.63%)
since 07/18/18
478-2 +7.95%
on 12/12/17
626-0 -17.53%
on 08/07/18
-7-6 (-1.48%)
since 10/18/17

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Terrible exports put a drag on grains

Which might be a great buying opportunity

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 531-4
1st Resistance Point 526-2
Last Price 515-4
1st Support Level 517-6
2nd Support Level 514-4

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 569-4
Fibonacci 50% 552-1
Fibonacci 38.2% 534-6
Last Price 515-4
52-Week Low 478-2

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