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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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Hard Red Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures were 2 to 6 1/2 cents lower in most winter wheat contracts on Monday, as export data disappointed the bulls amid the recent price breakdown. MPLS was up 2 to 6 cents on planting weather concerns. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 353,727 MT of all wheat was shipped in the week that ended on March 14. That was a 42.2% drop from the week previous and 20.5% below the same week in 2018. Inspections YTD are lagging a year ago by 6.17%, at 17.976 MMT (660.5 mbu). Individual State Crop Progress reports show KS winter wheat ratings down 2% to 49% gd/ex, with OK and TX both improved. Ethiopia is seeking 400,000 MT in a tender that expires on April 19.May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.56 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.36 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.60 3/4, up 6 cents--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
126,127 (+8,070)
109,919 (+4,698)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
87,396 (-3,498)
116,018 (-1,115)
Producers - Long / Short
77,674 (+5,092)
95,199 (+515)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
40,546 (-1,097)
6,813 (+108)
Managed Money - Long / Short
59,230 (-5,038)
110,580 (-366)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,166 (+1,540)
5,438 (-749)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
456-6 +7.83%
on 11/27/18
504-0 -2.28%
on 12/13/18
+11-4 (+2.39%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
456-6 +7.83%
on 11/27/18
534-2 -7.81%
on 09/24/18
-23-6 (-4.60%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
456-6 +7.83%
on 11/27/18
626-0 -21.33%
on 08/07/18
+7-6 (+1.60%)
since 12/14/17

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Wheat Market News and Commentary

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Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are down 4 to 5 cents at midday. Meal futures are $1.10/ton lower, with soy oil 7 points in the red. USDA showed Export Inspections of 841,888 MT to all destinations during the week of...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are showing steady to 7 cent losses in the winter wheat contracts on Monday, with MPLS 2 to 6 3/4 cents higher. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 353,727...

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WHEAT General Comments Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices closed slightly lower for the week. Chicago SRW prices are now [...]

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 492-4
1st Resistance Point 492-4
Last Price 492-4s
1st Support Level 492-4
2nd Support Level 492-4

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 561-3
Fibonacci 50% 541-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 521-3
Last Price 492-4s
52-Week Low 456-6

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