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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary

Fri Oct 19, 4:40PM CDT
Wheat futures were mostly steady to 4 cents higher on Friday, with MPLS the strongest. Front month CBT was down 0.48% on the week, with KC 1.53% lower and MPLS 1.22% in the red. Wheat export commitments are 18% smaller than last year at this time, but unshipped sales are down only 4%, so the picture looks a little better going forward. USDA stuck to their 1.025 bbu projection last week, while export commitments are 44% of that total and are normally 62% by this time. Money managers in Chicago wheat futures and options skimmed just 92 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday to -16,793 contracts. In KC wheat futures and options, they added 2,361 contracts to that net long position of 28,174 contracts.Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.14 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.16 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (39 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (53 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 16, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
111,408 (+2,942)
153,447 (+4,038)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
95,385 (+458)
54,228 (-465)
Producers - Long / Short
59,870 (+1,217)
135,799 (+1,457)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
42,338 (-350)
8,448 (+506)
Managed Money - Long / Short
66,618 (+1,848)
44,327 (-171)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,767 (-1,390)
9,901 (-294)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
506-4 +1.48%
on 10/01/18
534-2 -3.79%
on 09/24/18
-11-2 (-2.14%)
since 09/21/18
3-Month
498-6 +3.06%
on 09/13/18
626-0 -17.89%
on 08/07/18
-19-6 (-3.70%)
since 07/20/18
52-Week
478-2 +7.48%
on 12/12/17
626-0 -17.89%
on 08/07/18
-4-0 (-0.77%)
since 10/20/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 523-5
1st Resistance Point 519-7
Last Price 514-0
1st Support Level 512-3
2nd Support Level 508-5

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 569-4
Fibonacci 50% 552-1
Fibonacci 38.2% 534-6
Last Price 514-0
52-Week Low 478-2

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