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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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Hard Red Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures posted 4 to 8 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. There is still significant snow cover in the Dakotas and Minnesota. As it melts, water levels are rising in that area. Where it isn’t melting, the ground is still frozen. All wheat exports sales for the week of 3/14 are estimated in the range of 200,000-450,000 MT for old crop and 100,000-225,000 MT for new crop. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat in a tender that expires on Friday. Brazil’s Ag Minister stated that the quota of 750,000 MT of tariff free wheat announced yesterday is for global imports, not just US origin according to wire reports. FCStone estimates Brazil imports in 18/19 down 1.3 MMT to 5.7 MMT on larger domestic production. Argentine supplies are also available.May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.64 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents,May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.44, up 8 1/4 cents,May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.71 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
126,127 (+8,070)
109,919 (+4,698)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
87,396 (-3,498)
116,018 (-1,115)
Producers - Long / Short
77,674 (+5,092)
95,199 (+515)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
40,546 (-1,097)
6,813 (+108)
Managed Money - Long / Short
59,230 (-5,038)
110,580 (-366)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,166 (+1,540)
5,438 (-749)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
456-6 +7.83%
on 11/27/18
504-0 -2.28%
on 12/13/18
+11-4 (+2.39%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
456-6 +7.83%
on 11/27/18
534-2 -7.81%
on 09/24/18
-23-6 (-4.60%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
456-6 +7.83%
on 11/27/18
626-0 -21.33%
on 08/07/18
+7-6 (+1.60%)
since 12/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 492-4
1st Resistance Point 492-4
Last Price 492-4s
1st Support Level 492-4
2nd Support Level 492-4

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 561-3
Fibonacci 50% 541-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 521-3
Last Price 492-4s
52-Week Low 456-6

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