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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary

Tue Oct 23, 7:29AM CDT
Wheat futures are trading steady to 2 cent higher in the CBT and MPLS contracts, with KC steady to 1 1/2 lower. They closed the day with most contracts 3 to 8 1/2 cents in the red, with MPLS the strongest of the three exchanges. A little pressure was being felt from a stronger US dollar index. All wheat export inspections totaled 384,047 MT in the week that ended on 10/18. That was down 16.02% from last week but more than double the same week last year. Winter wheat planting progress was reported at 72% complete as of Sunday, moving 7% on the week but still 5% shy of the 5-year average. The crop was also shown at 53% emerged, now 2% below normal pace. The USDA ag attach in Australia estimates the country’s wheat crop at 18 MMT, vs. the official USDA number at 18.5 MMT.--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18 (38 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (52 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 16, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
111,408 (+2,942)
153,447 (+4,038)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
95,385 (+458)
54,228 (-465)
Producers - Long / Short
59,870 (+1,217)
135,799 (+1,457)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
42,338 (-350)
8,448 (+506)
Managed Money - Long / Short
66,618 (+1,848)
44,327 (-171)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,767 (-1,390)
9,901 (-294)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
502-4 +0.75%
on 10/23/18
534-2 -5.24%
on 09/24/18
-19-0 (-3.62%)
since 09/21/18
3-Month
498-6 +1.50%
on 09/13/18
626-0 -19.13%
on 08/07/18
-30-4 (-5.68%)
since 07/23/18
52-Week
478-2 +5.85%
on 12/12/17
626-0 -19.13%
on 08/07/18
-22-2 (-4.21%)
since 10/23/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 519-3
1st Resistance Point 513-5
Last Price 506-0
1st Support Level 504-1
2nd Support Level 500-3

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 569-4
Fibonacci 50% 552-1
Fibonacci 38.2% 534-6
Last Price 506-0
52-Week Low 478-2

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