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Hard Red Wheat Dec '18 (KEZ18)

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cmdty Insider - Hard Red Wheat Market Commentary

Thu Sep 20, 4:54PM CDT
Wheat futures saw steady to 2 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday, with a couple KC and MPLS contracts fractionally lower. Weakness in the US dollar index provided a little support, along with spillover strength in corn. The weekly Export Sales report showed all wheat bookings during the week of 9/13 at 468,433 MT, on the high side of trade estimates. That was a 20.9% jump from the week prior and 52.5% larger than the same week in 2017. The Philippines purchased 80,000 MT, with Indonesia buying 70,000 MT and Vietnam in for 61,000 MT. We are now through week 15, with still no reported sales for 19/20. Export shipments were reported at 315,143 MT, 26.55% below last week, with 150,600 MT headed to Japan.DEC 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24, up 1 1/2 cents,DEC 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.27, up 3/4 cent,DEC 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88 1/2, up 1/2 cent

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,787/1,625
First Notice Date
11/29/18 (70 days)
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (85 days)

Seasonal Chart

Daily price change for Hard Red Wheat Dec '18
Average price change for the 5 prior Dec contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Sep 11, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
105,339 (+2,535)
157,952 (-8,025)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
91,116 (-3,021)
36,890 (+7,279)
Producers - Long / Short
48,744 (+2,738)
137,484 (-8,971)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
44,470 (+231)
8,343 (+1,380)
Managed Money - Long / Short
66,028 (-4,396)
25,843 (+7,997)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
25,088 (+1,375)
11,047 (-718)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
498-6 +5.66%
on 09/13/18
579-0 -8.98%
on 08/21/18
-47-6 (-8.31%)
since 08/20/18
3-Month
493-2 +6.84%
on 07/02/18
626-0 -15.81%
on 08/07/18
-1-4 (-0.28%)
since 06/20/18
52-Week
478-2 +10.19%
on 12/12/17
626-0 -15.81%
on 08/07/18
-11-0 (-2.04%)
since 09/20/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 536-0
1st Resistance Point 531-4
Last Price 527-0s
1st Support Level 520-6
2nd Support Level 514-4

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52-Week High 626-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 569-4
Fibonacci 50% 552-1
Fibonacci 38.2% 534-6
Last Price 527-0s
52-Week Low 478-2

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