Coffee Mar '19 (KCH19)Get Real-Time Futures
Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) this morning is down -1.60 (-1.56%), while Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) is up +8 (+0.54%). Mar arabica coffee dropped to a 2-1/2 month low this morning as signs of abundant supplies prompted fund selling. The USDA on Friday raised its global 2018/19 coffee production estimate to 174.493 mln bags (+9.8% y/y) from a June estimate of 171.166 mln bags. The USDA also raised its global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks estimate to 37.056 mln bags (+23.7% y/y) from a June estimate of 32.812 mln bags. Cecafe reported last Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November. Robusta coffee recovered slightly from last Friday's 2-1/2 year low on fund short covering . ICO data last Monday showed that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Robusta coffee supplies are also abundant as data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs last Tuesday showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 15.7 mm in the past week, or only 27% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
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