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Coffee May '19 (KCK19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Close Higher on Strength in the Brazilian Real

May arabica coffee (KCK19) on Friday closed up +0.55 (+0.55%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed up +6 (+0.39%). Coffee prices closed higher Friday after strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar sparked short-covering in coffee futures. Strength in the real discourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee on Thursday fell to a contract low and May robusta coffee fell to a 1-week low on ample rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that 79.6 mm of rain fell in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee-growing region, or 186% of the historical average, which should boost soil moisture levels and coffee yields. Robusta coffee also found support Friday after Vietnam's provincial weather office said rain in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing region, will be lower than the historical average though the end of this month. On the negative side is increased supply in Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam Jan coffee exports rose +19.4% m/m and +41.1% y/y to 183,693 MT. Coffee prices also saw downward pressure from ample coffee supplies after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported Feb 18 that global coffee exports during Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags posted on Jan 23.Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, (2) ICO's forecast for a 2017/18 global coffee deficit of -3.5 mln bags, and (3) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) the +20% y/y surge in Brazil Jan green coffee exports to 3.05 mln bags, the highest ever for a January, (2) ample supplies as ICO data showed that global 2017/18 coffee exports rose +2% y/y to 121.9 mln bags and that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags, (3) ICO's forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months, (4) heavy coffee supply as ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags, (5) Conab projections for Brazil's 2018 coffee production to climb +37% y/y to a record 61.7 mln bags as crops are in the higher-yielding half of their biennial cycle, and (6) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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