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Coffee Mar '19 (KCH19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Tuesday closed down -0.70 (-0.70%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed up +9 (+0.61%). Mar arabica coffee slumped to a 2-3/4 month low after Conab, Brazil's national supply agency, raised its Brazil 2018/19 coffee production estimate to a record 61.7 mln bags (+37% y/y) from a Sep forecast of 59.9 mln bags. Conab raised its Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 47.5 mln bags from a Sep forecast of 45.9 mln bags and raised its Brazil robusta coffee production estimate to 14.2 mln bags from a prior estimate of 14 mln bags. The outlook is for abundant coffee supplies after the USDA last Friday raised its global 2018/19 coffee production estimate to 174.493 mln bags (+9.8% y/y) from June's estimate of 171.166 mln bags. The USDA also raised its global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks estimate to 37.056 mln bags (+23.7% y/y) from a June estimate of 32.812 mln bags. Fund short-covering helped robusta coffee close higher and recover further from last Friday's 2-1/2 year low after last Friday's Commitment of Traders data showed fund managers tripled their net-short positions in robusta coffee to an 8-week high of 10,248 contracts in the week ended Dec 11. On the positive side, Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 15.7 mm in the past week, or only 27% of the historical average. Another positive for coffee prices was the -9.7% y/y decline in U.S. Nov green coffee inventories to 6.082 mln bags. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
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