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Coffee Mar '19 (KCH19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Thursday closed up +1.05 (+1.02%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -18 (-1.18%). Arabica coffee rebounded from a 2-1/2 month low Thursday and moved higher after the U.S. Climate Prediction Center raised its estimate for an El Nino weather pattern forming by the end of February to 91% from an 80% estimate in November, which may lead to hotter and drier conditions in South America. Coffee prices had dropped to fresh 2-1/2 month lows Thursday on signs of abundant supplies. ICO reported Monday that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. Robusta coffee supplies are also abundant as data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs Tuesday showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, crop concerns in Brazil continue after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
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