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Coffee Mar '19 (KCH19)

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cmdty Insider - Coffee Market Commentary

Dec arabica coffee (KCZ18) on Friday closed up +2.55 (+2.32%) and Jan ICE robusta coffee (RMZ18) closed down -21 (-1.26%). Dollar weakness was positive for coffee prices Friday after the dollar index tumbled to a 1-week low. Also, U.S. coffee supplies are tighter after the Green Coffee Association reported that U.S. Oct green coffee inventories fell -12.2% y/y to a 2-1/4 year low of 6.177 mln bags. Prices have been under pressure this week and posted a 5-week low Tuesday on the outlook for robust supplies. ICE-monitored coffee inventories continue to climb and rose to a 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags on Thursday. In addition, ample rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee region, is weighing on arabica coffee prices after Somar Meteorologia reported that rainfall in Minas Gerais totaled 50.7 mm in the past week, or 112% of the historical average. Jan ICE robusta coffee prices closed lower Friday on concern about abundant supplies from Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported Monday that Vietnam Jan-Oct coffee exports rose +21.2% y/y to 1.57 MMT. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) ICO's forecast for a 2017/18 global coffee deficit of -3.5 mln bags, and (2) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) ample supplies as ICO data showed global 2017/18 coffee exports rose +2% y/y to 121.9 mln bags, (2) Conab projections for Brazil's 2018 coffee production to climb +33% y/y to a record 59.9 mln bags as crops are in the higher-yielding half of their biennial cycle, (3) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags, and (4) the slump in the Brazilian real to a 3-year low against the dollar in September, which incentivizes Brazil's coffee producers to increase exports.
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