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Coffee Mar '19 (KCH19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

March arabica coffee (KCH19) this morning is up +0.15 (+0.15%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) is up +3 (+0.20%). Coffee prices moved higher this morning after strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar spurred fund short covering in coffee futures. Strength in the Brazilian real discourages exports by Brazil’s coffee producers, thus curbing global coffee supplies. Gains were limited after Rabobank raised its Brazil 2018/19 arabica coffee export forecast to 44 mln bags from a previous estimate of 41 mln bags. Current supplies remain abundant as ICE-monitored coffee inventories Tuesday climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.484 mln bags. Also, Cecafe reported Brazil Dec green coffee exports surged +27% y/y to 3.36 mln bags, the highest ever for a December. A negative for robusta coffee prices is the forecast from Vietnam's weather office that Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's biggest coffee-producing region, will receive normal rainfall from Jan 22-31, which should boost robusta coffee yields in Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer. The downside in coffee prices may be limited after Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, projected last Thursday that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle. Also, the Green Coffee Association reported last Wednesday that U.S. Dec green coffee inventories fell -7.5% y/y to 6.13 mln bags. Robusta coffee has support on signs of smaller robusta supplies after Vietnam Dec robusta coffee exports fell -6.1% y/y to 153,906 MT. The outlook for a record coffee crop in Brazil is a major bearish factor for coffee prices with Conab recently raising its Brazil 2018/19 coffee production estimate to a record 61.7 mln bags (+37% y/y) from a Sep forecast of 59.9 mln bags.
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