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Coffee Mar '19 (KCH19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary


Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Tuesday closed down -2.80 (-2.66%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -21 (-1.36%). Coffee prices extended their 6-week-long decline to fresh 2-1/2 month lows on Tuesday as signs of robust global coffee production induced fund selling of coffee futures. ICO reported on Monday that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. A negative for robusta prices was data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs that showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, ICO cut its 2017/18 global coffee surplus estimate to 1.59 mln bags from an October estimate of 2.58 mln bags. Also, crop concerns in Brazil continue after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
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