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Crude Oil WTI Feb '13 (CLG13)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures Market News and Commentary

Crude and Gasoline Market News and Commentary

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Friday closed down by -$1.48 per barrel (-2.62%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$1.17 (-1.90%). Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -4.39 cents per gallon (-2.97%). The energy complex was under pressure Friday due to strength in the dollar as the dollar index soared to a 1-1/2 year high. Also, economic weakness in China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, raised energy demand concerns after China Nov industrial production rose a less-than-expected +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace in 10 years. On the positive side was positive U.S. economic data after U.S. Nov retail sales rose +0.2%, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.1%. The early-afternoon Baker Hughes data was also supportive since it showed that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended December 14 fell by -4 rigs to a 1-3/4 month low of 873, although that was still high at only 15 rigs below the recent 3-3/4 year high of 888 rigs posted in the week ended Nov 16.Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the reinstatement of full U.S. sanctions on Iran as of Nov 5, although the U.S. gave waivers to 8 countries for up to 1.25 mln bpd of Iranian exports, (2) the agreement by OPEC+ on Dec 7 to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million bpd for the first six months of 2019 (800,000 bpd for OPEC members), which should soak up much of the expected 2019 global oil surplus, and (3) the 50% drop in Venezuelan production seen since 2016. Bearish factors include (1) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 11.7 million bpd, (2) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 year high, and (3) increased U.S. crude exports that add to global supplies after U.S. crude exports in the week ended Nov 30 rose +761,000 bpd to a record 3.203 million bpd.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,702/4,275
First Notice Date
01/24/13
Expiration Date
01/22/13 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Feb '13
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Feb Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Dec 11, 2018

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
801,203 (-13,323)
1,132,155 (-30,895)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
504,584 (-708)
195,078 (+19,932)
Producers - Long / Short
467,856 (-6,243)
449,876 (-7,903)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
153,702 (-2,267)
502,634 (-18,179)
Managed Money - Long / Short
206,987 (-3,047)
112,347 (+6,293)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
297,597 (+2,339)
82,731 (+13,639)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
88.20 +9.12%
on 12/24/12
96.40 -0.17%
on 01/22/13
+7.58 (+8.55%)
since 12/21/12
3-Month
85.16 +13.01%
on 11/07/12
96.40 -0.17%
on 01/22/13
+6.54 (+7.29%)
since 10/22/12

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 97.29
1st Resistance Point 96.77
Last Price 96.24s
1st Support Level 95.35
2nd Support Level 94.45

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52-Week High 109.50
Fibonacci 61.8% 98.25
Last Price 96.24s
Fibonacci 50% 94.78
Fibonacci 38.2% 91.31
52-Week Low 80.06

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