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Sun, Dec 16th, 2018
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Sun, Dec 16th, 2018.
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  • China, Data and Drama - Blue Line Morning Express

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  • Gold May is a Low Risk Buy

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Futures Market News and Commentary

Gold and Silver Market News and Commentary

Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Friday closed down -6.0 (-0.48%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed down -0.218 (-1.47%). Feb gold and Mar silver retreated to 1-week lows Friday due to dollar strength as the dollar index surged to a 1-1/2 year high. An easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China also reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals after China said it will remove the retaliatory 25% tariff on automobiles imported from the U.S. for three months starting Jan 1. Concern about global demand for industrial metals undercut silver prices after China Nov industrial production rose a weaker-than-expected +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace in 10 years, and after the Eurozone Dec Markit manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected -0.4 point decline to 51.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years. Finally, fund selling of silver continues as long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low Thursday. On the positive side for gold is recent stock market volatility that has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-1/2 month high Thursday.Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) expansive Bank of Japan and European Central Bank monetary policies, although the ECB is ending its quantitative easing program on Dec 31, (2) safe-haven demand for precious metals due to the global stock market correction, Brexit, and the Italy-EU budget standoff, and (3) the global economic expansion that is supportive for industrial metals prices. Bearish factors include (1) strength in the dollar as the dollar index rallied to a 1-1/2 year high, (2) tighter dollar liquidity as the Fed raises interest rates and draws down its balance sheet, and (3) the slower Chinese economy and US/Chinese trade tensions that dampen Chinese demand for industrial metals.
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