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Thu, Feb 21st, 2019
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Precious Metals Rally on a Weak Dollar and Increased Inflation Expectations

Apr Comex gold (GCJ19) on Wednesday closed up +3.1 (+0.23%) and March silver (SIH19) closed up +0.210 (+1.22%). Precious metals moved higher Wednesday for a third day with Apr gold at a 10-month high and Mar silver at a 2-week high. Precious metals extended Tuesday's gains on Wednesday after the dollar index tumbled to a 2-week low. Also, increased inflation expectations boosted demand for precious metals as an inflation hedge after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate rose to a 2-1/4 month high of 1.89%, up by +21 bp from the early-Jan 1-3/4 year low of 1.68%. Precious metals prices are still seeing support from Tuesday's dovish central bank news. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda on Tuesday said the BOJ would consider additional monetary easing if required. In addition, European Central Bank Chief Economist Praet said "if the Eurozone economy were to slow more sharply, the ECB could adapt its forward guidance on interest rates, and this could be complemented by other measures." Fund buying of precious metals is a bullish factor as global geopolitical concerns and stock market volatility have fueled demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 5-3/4 year high on Jan 31. Also, fund demand for silver has increased after long silver positions in ETFs rose to a 1-month high on Tuesday.
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