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A relief rally, or a real rally?
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cmdty Insider - Ag Market Commentary
Wheat futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower in the early going, with MPLS spring wheat the firmest and Chicago the weakest. They saw 10 to 12 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Wednesday, with MPLS up 5 to 7 3/4 cents. The Chicago activity was short covering, with preliminary open interest declining 1,072 contracts. Expectations ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report are for 250,000-500,000 MT in all wheat bookings for the week that ended on 9/13. A Stats Canada survey showed expected all wheat production at 31.02 MMT for 2018, up 1.04 MMT from the production total in 2017. Durum accounted for 0.75 MMT in that jump at 5.71 MMT in 2018. Global buying interest has really picked up in recent days, notably in North Africa and extending over to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Syria purchased 200,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender this week as well.
Soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. They posted 15 to 16 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday, taking back Tuesday’s losses plus some. There was some net new buying, with preliminary open interest up 3,574 contracts. Soybean meal was up $5.90/ton, while soy oil was 13 points higher. The range of trade estimates for 18/19 soybean export bookings in the week of Sept 13 is 400,000-900,000 MT. Soy meal expectations are running 50,000-350,000 MT, with 0-30,000 MT in soy oil sales. The National average cash price according to DTN was $7.12 on Tuesday evening. That would put the national basis at -1.02, nearly 32 1/2 cents below last year at this time. According to a Stats Canada survey, canola production for 2018 is expected at 21 MMT, down 1.33 MMT from 2017 production. China sold 92,988 MT of 2013 soybeans from an auction of state reserves on Wednesday.
Corn futures are trading fractionally higher since ending the Wednesday session with most contracts 2 to 3 cents in the green. Preliminary open interest rose 17,242 contracts as harvest expands. The weekly EIA report indicated that ethanol plants produced 1.051 million barrels per day during the week of 9/14. That was up 31,000 bpd from the week prior. If plants are taking downtime, it is hard to see in the numbers. Ethanol stocks at 22.746 million barrels were down 148,000 barrels from the previous week. Gulf stocks were up 501,000 barrels, with the East Coast down 592,000. Analysts are expecting USDA to show 0.5-1.2 MMT in 2018/19 US corn export sales during the week of 9/13. A couple more South Korean buyers purchased 123,000 MT of optional origin corn on Wednesday, following purchases of 134,000 MT on Tuesday.