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Mon, Jul 16th, 2018
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Mon, Jul 16th, 2018.
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Agricharts Market Commentary

Fri Jul 13, 3:58PM CDT
Soybean futures closed the day with 14 to 16 cent losses, as August was down 6.7% since last Friday. Nearby soy meal was down $4.60/ton, with soy oil 37 points in the red. Analysts are expecting next Monday’s NOPA report to show that it’s members crushed 159.637 mbu of soybeans in June, which would be 15.6% larger than last year. Soy oil stocks are seen at 1.807 billion pounds. Thursday’s WASDE showed USDA adding another 15 mbu to 17/18 crush to a record 2.03 bbu, with 18/19 crush up 45 mbu from June at 2.045 bbu. Old crop exports were raised 20 mbu with the help of large shipments in the last several weeks. The USDA took a nickel off the 17/18 cash average price to $9.35, while dropping 75 cents off the range for 18/19 to $8-$10.50 ($9.25 mid-point). Safras & Mercado expects 2018/19 Brazilian acreage for soybeans to jump 2.3% from last year, to ~88.958 million acres, while USDA projects Brazil production at 120.5 MMT. Chinese imports of soybeans during June totaled 8.7 MMT according to customs data, down 10.1% from May. Port congestion has been an issue, with vessels seeing extended wait times to unload.Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14, down 16 cents,Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.18 3/4, down 15 cents,Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.24 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents,Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.44 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents,Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $328.80, down $4.60,Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.80, down $0.37
Fri Jul 13, 3:58PM CDT
Corn futures posted 4 to 5 cent losses in most contracts on Friday, as July expired at $3.30 1/4. Newly appointed front month September was down 5.27% on the week. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that the spec managed money net short position grew by 33,566 contracts. In the week that ended July 10, their net position in corn futures and options was -104,376 contracts. The USDA updated their balance sheets yesterday, showing a 100 mbu increase in old crop projected exports to 2.400 bbu and a 125 mbu jump to new crop shipments to 2.225 bbu. They dropped corn usage for ethanol by 50 mbu for 18/19, but increased 17/18 by 25 mbu. The USDA also tightened the 17/18 cash average price to $3.30-3.50, while trimming new crop by 10 cents to a $3.30-4.30 range. A Chinese auction of state reserves saw 942,336 MT of corn sold, totaling 23.45% of the amount offered on Friday.Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.30 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents,Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.41 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.54 3/4, down 4 1/2 centsMar 19 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents
Fri Jul 13, 3:58PM CDT
Wheat futures saw 8 to 12 1/2 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Friday, with MPLS steady a penny on either side of UNCH. September CBT was down 3.54% on the week, with KC losing 4.14% and MPLS 4.75% lower. The USDA’s estimated cash average price for US wheat was trimmed 10 cents for new crop to $4.50-5.50 on Thursday. Individual wheat by class data shows HRW ending stocks for 2018/19 decreasing by nearly 164 mbu to 417, while HRS is seen jumping 92 to 283 mbu. The Rosario Grain Exchange updated their 2018/19 wheat production estimate for Argentina to 20 MMT, which would be a record if realized. Russia’s Ag Ministry projects that the country will produce 64.4 MMT of wheat for 2018/19, vs. the USDA’s newly updated 67 MMT.Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.97, up 12 1/2 cents,Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.91 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.31 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents
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