- Weekend Wrap Up (Grains & Livestock)
Our outlook, market bias, and technical levels to watch this week.
- Grain Spreads: Old Crop/New Crop, KC/Chicago Wheat
Opportunities Abound in Spreads
- US Stocks Something is Wrong, Corn the New T-Bill?
Corn safe bet next 60 days or more. A risk off place to hid?
- Paragon Investments' Futures File: Grains Up, Pound Down
Our weekly column looks at the rally in the grains and the rapidly declining British pound.
- Feeder Cattle has base to work higher in place
Demand and relatively cheap feed grain keeps a bid on Feeder Cattle. Feed Lots are full with more product needed.
- Trade Talks Blooming & China Set to Buy Corn. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/14/18
We kickoff this morning with Business Inventories and Retail sales followed by Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M. December Grains...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Wheat futures were a penny to 6 cents lower in most contracts on Friday, as Dec futures expired today. Wheat 18/19 export commitments are now just 9.5% behind this time last year. They are now 60% of USDA’s newly updated projection of 1 bbu, with the normal pace at 77%. Spec funds in KC wheat futures and options flipped back to a net long position by a move of 4,874 contracts as of Wednesday to a net long position of 2,429 contracts. They trimmed 6,005 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat to take it to -22,402 contracts. Russia’s ag ministry estimates that the country’s 18/19 wheat crop totaled 70 MMT. BAGE estimates that Argentina’s wheat crop is now 75.2% mature, with harvest even with the average pace at 57.4%. They put condition @ 35.8% good/ex, compared to 63.9% good/ex last year.Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30, down 6 cents,Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.84, down 4 1/4 cents--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Corn futures ended the Friday session with most contracts steady to 1/2 cent higher, as Dec expired at $3.76 3/4. USDA reported a private export sale of 125,000 MT of corn to Japan this morning. Corn export commitments through December 6 were 16.3% larger than last year. Export Commitments are now 44% of the USDA projection, with the normal pace running 49%. CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report indicated that money managers in corn futures and options held a net long position of 98,617 contracts as of Tuesday, a move of +44,872 contract on the week. Argentina’s corn crop is estimated at 46.7% planted, lagging the 53.8% average pace according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Trade rumors this morning suggested China may turn to US corn purchases after the first of the year (reports were ~3MMT).Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84 3/4, up 1/2 cent,May 19 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, up 1/2 centJul 19 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, up 1/2 cent
Soybean futures closed Friday with losses of 6 to 6 3/4 cents, despite another export sale to China. Dec soy meal expired at $309.40/ton, with soy oil at 28.39 cents/lb. Separate soybean export sales of 300,000 MT to China and another 130,000 MT to Unknown both for 18/19 delivery were reported through the USDA’s daily reporting system this morning. This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed specs in soybean futures and options trimming their net short position by 6,525 contracts as of 12/11 to -11,068 contracts. Analysts estimated Monday’s NOPA report will show 168.444 mbu of soybeans crushed by its members during November. Soy oil stocks are projected to total 1.503 billion pounds. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that 68.8% of the Argentine soybean crop is planted, above the 66.9% average pace. They also pegged the initial conditions at 19.1% gd/ex, vs. 49.3% gd/ex last year.Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.13 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.27, down 6 1/4 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.43, down 6 1/4 cents,Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $309.40, unch,Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.39, down $0.25--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management