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cmdty Insider - Ag Market Commentary
Wheat futures are trading 3 to 5 cents higher in all three markets this morning. They saw 6 to 7 cent losses in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday, with MPLS down 3 to 4 cents. The average trade guess ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report is for September 1 wheat stocks to be at 2.344 bbu, 3% larger than last year, on lackluster first quarter demand. As of September 23, NASS showed 21% of the Kansas winter wheat crop had been planted, with OK at 27% and TX 30% complete. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat, with offers due on October 2. Japan is tendering for 109,150 MT of wheat this week, with 49,470 MT US origin and results expected on Thursday.
Soybean futures are currently 4 to 5 cents higher after also ending the Turnaround Tuesday session with most contracts 4 to 5 cents in the green. Preliminary open interest rose 5,973 contracts. Nearby soy meal was up $1.50/ton, while soy oil saw 11-point gains. A 24-hour strike closed ports in Argentina on Tuesday. Both Brazil and Argentina are planning to import US beans for crushers to replace what was shipped to China. Friday’s Grain Stocks report, released at 11 a.m. CDT, is expected to show 398 mbu of soybean stocks on September 1, based on trade surveys. That is a buildup of 96 mbu from last year and 3 higher than the Sept S&D table. As of Sunday, all of the 18 reported states were matching or ahead of their normal harvest pace except Arkansas. Soybean condition ratings in NE were down 3 points, with NC seeing the largest loss following Hurricane Florence, down 34.
Corn futures are fractionally lower this morning. They posted their fifth consecutive higher close on Tuesday, with most contracts up 3 to 3 1/4 cents. The buying interest was only short covering, with preliminary December contract open interest sinking 10,680 contracts on Tuesday. Much of the Corn Belt is moving at a faster than normal harvest pace according to the Crop Progress report. That may be slowed by wet conditions later this week. Condition ratings in NE were down 1 point, with IA steady, MN up 3 and IL 4 points higher. The quarterly Grain Stocks report from the USDA will be released on Friday, with the average trade estimate for September 1 corn stocks at 2.01 bbu. That would be an 8 mbu increase from the September WASDE 17/18 US ending stocks projection if realized.