- Morning Grain Market Research
When queried about rumors that Russia would be curbing wheat exports this year due to the short-fall in production, the official word from ag ministry...
- China and Mexico to Reopen Talks. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/17/18
No major reports to focus on this morning but news China is sending a team to reopen talks before the next round of tariffs begin [...]
- Daily Livestock & Grain Market Technicals/Fundamentals
What to look for in todays Ag trade.
Agricharts Market Commentary
Soybean futures rallied into the close to end the day with 4 to 5 cent losses, roughly 10 cents off their lows. Traders were taking money from this week’s 3.61% gains off the table ahead of the weekend. A little buying came late in the day on reports that the US and China are planning a roadmap to end the trade dispute by mid-November. That, of course, presumes that they will agree with each other’s proposals! Nearby soy meal was down $4.50/ton, with soy oil up 8 points. The large spec funds in soybean futures and options added another 2,641 contracts to their net short position as of 8/14. That took their net position to -58,924 contracts. Soybean export commitments are now lagging last year by 4.3%, slipping a little from last week. Compared to the USDA full year projection, they are 102% complete vs. the 104% normal pace. Actual exports are 94% of that number lagging average by 3%, with 4.718 MMT in unshipped sales remaining.Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/2, down 4 cents,Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.92 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05, down 4 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.26, down 4 1/2 cents,Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $330.10, down $4.50,Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.23, up $0.08
Wheat futures posted 15 to 18 1/4 cent gains in the nearby winter wheat contracts on Friday, with MPLS 10 to 12 1/4 cents higher. A weaker US dollar index, down 532 points on the day, provided support. Later in the day on Friday, Mexico’s Economic minister stated that he expects a US/Mexico bilateral deal may be complete by next week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed money managers in Chicago wheat futures and options at a net long position of 66,948 contracts. That was an increase of 2,361 contracts from the week prior and the largest reported net long position since September 2012. They also held a net long position of 62,652 contracts in KC wheat futures and options as of Tuesday. The Russian Ag ministry released a statement that they are not considering limiting exports despite rising domestic prices and expect them to total 35 MMT this MY.Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents,Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.65, up 17 1/2 cents,Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents
Corn futures closed the day with fractional to 1 cent losses in most nearby contracts, as September was up 1.82% on the week. CFTC data on Friday showed spec traders trimming their net short position in corn futures and options by 4,743 contracts during the reporting week that ended on Tuesday, taking it to -24,962 contracts. Total export commitments are now 99% of the USDA full year projection, with 104% the normal pace for mid-August (there are always sales that can’t be shipped rolled over to new crop). Exports are just 88% of that 17/18 estimate vs. the 93% average, as there are still 6.849 MMT in unshipped sales with just a shade over 3 reporting weeks left in the MY. China sold 850,780 MT of corn from state reserves into the domestic market on Friday, totaling 21.49% of the amount offered.Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 1 cent,Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.78 3/4, down 1 cent,Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.90 3/4, down 3/4 centMay 19 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, down 3/4 cent