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Tue, Dec 11th, 2018
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Tue, Dec 11th, 2018.
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Futures Market Commentary

Jan Nymex natural gas (NGF19) on Monday closed up +0.057 (+1.27%). Nat gas prices on Monday erased early losses and pushed up to a 1-week high on short-covering after a midday update to a Global Forecast System weather model showed below-normal temperatures in most of the northern half of the U.S. from Dec 20-24. Also, signs of lower U.S. nat-gas output gave prices a boost after today's data showed that U.S. natural gas production in the lower 48 states fell for a second day to 84.475 million cfd, a 3-week low. Gains were limited after the dollar index rose to a 1-week high and after NOAA forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the U.S. from Dec 15-19. Thursday's weekly EIA inventory data is expected to show U.S. nat-gas stockpiles fell -82 bcf, slightly more than the 5-year average of -79 bcf. U.S. nat-gas inventories remain tight at 2.991 bcf as of Nov 30, -19.5% below the 5-year average and -19.1% y/y and the lowest seasonally since 2002.

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Monday closed down by -$1.61 per barrel (-3.06%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$1.91 (-3.10%). Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -6.69 cents per gallon (-4.50%). A rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high Monday weighed on the energy complex along with global energy demand concerns. Weaker-than-expected Nov trade data from China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, is negative for fuel demand after China Nov exports rose +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace of increase in 8 months, and China Nov imports rose +3.0% y/y, the slowest pace of increase in 2 years. Also, Japan Q3 GDP was revised downward to a decline of -2.5% (q/q annualized) from -2.0%, the weakest pace of growth in 4 years. In addition, confidence in Eurozone economic growth took a hit after Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence fell more than expected by -9.1 points to -0.3, a 4-year low.
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