- Crude Oil Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 ppb.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion...
- Banks, OPEC+, Yuan - Blue Line Morning Express
Covering ES, Crude and Gold. Out to brokerage clients early every morning with actionable trading ideas.
- Stuck in The Mud. The Energy Report 01/17/19
Oil is stuck in the mud. Stuck in the mud of politics and conflicting signals about supply and demand. The oil market is having a [...]
- Upside Continues
Yesterday the markets traded Higher based on good economic news from the housing sector. Will that upside continue today? Read on to learn more...
- WTI Crude oil outlook.
WTI Crude erratic for a week now with no direction. We are overbought in a bear trend so my best guess is that eventually we will head lower.
- Midday Market Minute
The levels and moving pieces to know today.
Futures Market News and Commentary
Feb Nymex natural gas (NGG19) on Thursday closed up by +0.029 (+0.86%). Nat-gas prices moved higher Thursday on concern that an anticipated cold snap for the lower-48 states will drain nat-gas stockpiles that are already near a 16-year low. Feb nat-gas is modestly below Tuesday's 3-week high on the outlook for a polar weather pattern to bring much colder-than-normal temperatures into the U.S. next week. NOAA has projected below-normal temperatures for the next 8 to 14 days for the central U.S. and Radiant Solutions forecasts "sizable changes in the colder direction" of below-normal temperatures from Jan 24-28 with freezing weather projected to reach as far south as Houston. Another positive for nat-gas prices is reduced U.S. nat-gas output after Thursday's data showed that lower-48 state nat-gas production fell for a third day to a 1-1/2 week low of 84.133 bcf. Thursday's weekly EIA inventory data showed U.S. nat-gas inventories fell -81 bcf, right on expectations although a much smaller draw than the 5-year average for this time of year of -218 bcf. U.S. nat-gas inventories remained tight at -2.0% y/y at 2.533 bcf as of Jan 11, which is -11.4% below the 5-year average.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG19) on Thursday closed down -$0.24 (-0.46%) per barrel and Mar Brent crude (CBH19) closed down -$0.14 (-0.23%). Feb RBOB gasoline (RBG19) closed up +1.41 cents per gallon (+1.00%). A rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week high Thursday put pressure on the energy complex. Also, negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA data weighed on energy prices after U.S. crude production increased +1.7% w/w to a record 11.9 million bpd (for the week of Jan 11) and after EIA gasoline inventories rose +7.5 million bbl to a 23-month high. Crude prices recovered most of their losses Thursday and gasoline moved higher after OPEC Dec compliance with its crude production cuts rose to 163% from 112% in Nov, the most in 8 months. Another supportive factor was data that showed OPEC Dec crude output fell -751,000 bpd to 31.58 million bpd, the biggest monthly decline in nearly two years, led by a -468,000 bpd cut in crude production from Saudi Arabia. In addition, weekly U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell -3,000 to a 5-week low of 213,000, a sign of economic strength that is positive for energy demand.