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Hard Red Wheat Mar '18 (KEH18)

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Hard Red Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher this morning in the Chicago and KC contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat is steady to a penny lower. They closed Monday with most winter wheat contracts 3 to 5 cents higher. MPLS was a penny higher in the May contract but lower in most other contracts. USDA export inspections for the week of March 21 totaled 340,398 MT. That was down 11.62% from the previous week. State by state Crop Progress reports show winter wheat ratings in the Southern Plains up from last week, with KS at 52% gd/ex (13% last year) and OK at 74% ( 9% LY), as TX was at 39% (vs. 12% LY). Egypt’s GASC announced a tender for wheat for 4/25-5/5 delivery, with results expected later today. --Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
KCBT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
02/28/18
Expiration Date
03/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Mar '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
132,555 (+6,428)
114,014 (+4,095)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
86,536 (-860)
115,930 (-88)
Producers - Long / Short
86,548 (+8,874)
99,286 (+4,087)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
38,175 (-2,371)
6,896 (+83)
Managed Money - Long / Short
57,793 (-1,437)
110,486 (-94)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
28,743 (+577)
5,444 (+6)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
460-0 +11.25%
on 02/22/18
533-4 -4.08%
on 03/05/18
+42-0 (+8.94%)
since 02/14/18
3-Month
415-2 +23.24%
on 12/15/17
533-4 -4.08%
on 03/05/18
+93-4 (+22.36%)
since 12/14/17
52-Week
410-4 +24.67%
on 12/11/17
614-0 -16.65%
on 07/05/17
+7-6 (+1.54%)
since 03/14/17

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Most Recent Stories

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Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are currently fractionally lower after they ended Monday with most contracts 1 to 2 cents higher. Short covering and rain in the forecast for an already saturated WCB supported the market....

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 2 1/2 cents lower this morning. They saw 2 to 2 3/4 cent gains in the front months on Monday. Meal futures were up a dime/ton, with soy oil 16 points higher. USDA indicated...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher this morning in the Chicago and KC contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat is steady to a penny lower. They closed Monday with most winter wheat contracts 3 to...

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures saw 2 to 2 3/4 cent gains in the front months on Monday. Meal futures were up a dime/ton, with soy oil 16 points higher. USDA indicated that 857,970 MT of soybeans were exported in the...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures closed Monday with most winter wheat contracts 3 to 5 cents higher. MPLS was a penny higher in the front months but lower in most other contracts. All wheat export inspections for the week...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 1 to 2 cents higher. Short covering and rain in the forecast for an already saturated WCB supported the market. This morning’s USDA Export...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are showing 1 to 2 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 995,997 MT of corn shipped in the week of March 21. That was a 24%...

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher at midday. Meal futures are up 50 cents/ton, with soy oil up 18 points. USDA indicated that 857,970 MT of soybeans were exported in the week that ended...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher in the winter wheat contracts, with MPLS mixed and within a penny of UNCH. All wheat export inspections for the week of March 21 were tallied at 340,398 MT by the...

Will Grains Continue Their Rally?

Will weather, trade talks, and the USDA report spur addtional short covering?

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 512-3
1st Resistance Point 512-1
Last Price 511-6s
1st Support Level 511-5
2nd Support Level 511-3

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52-Week High 614-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 536-2
Fibonacci 50% 512-2
Last Price 511-6s
Fibonacci 38.2% 488-2
52-Week Low 410-4

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