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10-Year T-Note Dec '18 (ZNZ18)

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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Settle Higher as Stocks Slip on Weak U.S. Retail Sales Report

Dec T-notes (ZNZ19) on Wednesday closed up +7 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -3.0 bp to 1.741%. T-note prices moved higher Wednesday after an unexpected decline in U.S. Sep retail sales bolstered speculation the Fed may need to keep cutting interest rates. Wednesday's data showed U.S. Sep retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.3% and -0.1% ex-autos, weaker than expectations of +0.3% and +0.2% ex-autos and the first decline in 7 months. T-notes also saw support Wednesday from weakness in U.S. stock indexes on that concern increased Hong Kong tensions may prevent the U.S. and China from agreeing to a trade deal. Stocks retreated after China's foreign ministry on Wednesday threatened unspecified "strong countermeasures" if the U.S. Congress passes a bill offering support to pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. The House on Tuesday passed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act," while the Senate has yet to act. The Fed Beige Book, released Wednesday afternoon, was slightly supportive for T-notes as information collected by the 12 Fed regional banks in the month through Oct 7 stated that the U.S. economy expanded at a "slight to moderate pace" with some districts reporting that "persistent trade tensions and slower growth weighed on activity." Comments from Chicago Fed President Evans on Wednesday were positive for T-note prices when he said, "there is an argument for more accommodation now to provide some further risk-management buffer against potential downside shocks." On the negative side for T-notes was the jump in the 10-year German bund yield Wednesday to a 2-1/2 month high of -0.379%. Bunds prices moved lower and yields rose after Bloomberg on Wednesday reported that German Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democrat party (CDU) is softening its opposition to fiscal stimulus. The report said the CDU caucus in the Bundestag would be ready to break its commitment to a balanced budget if an economic downturn required a more powerful action. U.S. inflation expectations rose slightly Wednesday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate climbed by +0.3 bp to 1.569%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high last Friday of 1.590%, which was well above last Wednesday's 3-year low of 1.470%.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
10-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
One half of 1/32 of a point ($15.625 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/19/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

10-Year T-Note Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 8, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
2,402,806 (+61,080)
2,334,445 (+84,440)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
604,788 (-36,217)
727,348 (-77,267)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
214,801 (+24,092)
278,681 (-16,302)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,542,662 (+73,730)
687,644 (+25,001)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
271,831 (-92,339)
1,120,191 (+18,287)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
193,923 (-8,917)
190,900 (-48,110)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
119-005 +1.60%
on 11/21/18
121-060 -0.22%
on 12/19/18
+1-200 (+1.36%)
since 11/19/18
3-Month
117-135 +2.98%
on 10/08/18
121-060 -0.22%
on 12/19/18
+2-115 (+1.99%)
since 09/19/18

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Dec T-notes (ZNZ19) on Tuesday closed down -14.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield rose +3.7 bp to 1.766%. T-note prices dropped to a 2-week low Tuesday and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 3-week high...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 121-095
1st Resistance Point 121-035
Last Price 120-295s
1st Support Level 120-260
2nd Support Level 120-225

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52-Week High 121-060
Last Price 120-295s
Fibonacci 61.8% 119-240
Fibonacci 50% 119-100
Fibonacci 38.2% 118-275
52-Week Low 117-135

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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