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Gasoline RBOB Nov '18 (RBX18)

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Gasoline RBOB Futures Market News and Commentary

Crude Oil Settles Higher on Stronger-than-Expected U.S. Economic Data

May WTI crude oil (CLK19) on Thursday closed up by +0.24 (+0.38%) and Jun Brent crude oil (CBM19) closed up by +0.35 (+0.49%). May RBOB gasoline (RBK19) closed up by +0.0304 (+1.49%). The energy complex moved higher Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data bolstered the demand outlook for crude oil and gasoline. Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -5,000 to a 49-3/4 year low of 192,000 and Mar retail sales rose +1.6%, the biggest increase in 1-1/2 years. The prospects for stronger fuel demand also pushed the crack spread up to a 10-month high Thursday, which may encourage refiners to boost their crude purchases to refine more gasoline. Gains in the energy complex were limited Thursday after the dollar index rose to a 2-week high. Crude oil prices still have support from concern that Libya crude output could be disrupted as an offensive from a militia loyal to Khalifa Haftar threatens an all-out war against Libyan government troops. Also, U.S. Feb trade data on Wednesday showed U.S. Feb crude exports jumped to a record 2.99 million bpd. Wednesday's EIA data showed that U.S. crude inventories as of Apr 12 were -0.1% below the 5-year average, gasoline supplies were -1.0% below the 5-year average, and distillate stockpiles were -5.8% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Apr 12 was down -0.8% w/w at 12.1 million bpd, just below the recent record high of 12.2 million bpd. Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the agreement by OPEC+ on Dec 7 to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million bpd for the first six months of 2019 (800,000 bpd for OPEC members), which should soak up much of the expected 2019 global oil surplus, (2) the -295,000 bpd decline in OPEC Mar crude production to a 4-year low of 30.385 million bpd, (3) increased compliance after OPEC's March compliance with crude production cuts rose to 155% from 104% in Feb, (4) the sharp drop in Iranian oil production from U.S. sanctions and in Venezuela oil production from U.S. sanctions and the economic crisis, (5) the drop in Russian crude oil production as of March 28 to 11.265 million bpd, down -153,000 bpd from October and a bigger cut than the -97,000 bpd decline from February, and (6) strong foreign demand for U.S. crude as trade data showed U.S. Feb crude exports jumped to a record 2.99 million bpd. Bearish factors include (1) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 12.2 million bpd, (2) the recent surge in U.S. gasoline inventories to a record high 259.6 million bbl, and (3) the recent increase in crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 14-month high.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Gasoline Blendstock New York Harbor [RBOB]
Contract Size
42,000 gallons
Tick Size
$0.0001 (0.01 cent) per gallon ($4.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$42,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,620/4,200
First Notice Date
11/02/18
Expiration Date
10/31/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Gasoline RBOB Nov '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Apr 16, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
197,053 (+2,627)
307,911 (+11,991)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
158,939 (+10,987)
62,141 (+2,690)
Producers - Long / Short
129,789 (+3,617)
270,774 (+8,440)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
45,902 (-703)
15,775 (+3,838)
Managed Money - Long / Short
117,587 (+9,070)
3,046 (-1,082)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
41,352 (+1,917)
59,095 (+3,772)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
1.7533 +0.84%
on 10/31/18
2.1500 -17.77%
on 10/03/18
-0.3177 (-15.23%)
since 09/28/18
3-Month
1.7533 +0.84%
on 10/31/18
2.1500 -17.77%
on 10/03/18
-0.2001 (-10.17%)
since 07/30/18
52-Week
1.6201 +9.13%
on 02/09/18
2.1500 -17.77%
on 10/03/18
+0.1526 (+9.45%)
since 10/30/17

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May WTI crude oil (CLK19) on Thursday closed up by +0.24 (+0.38%) and Jun Brent crude oil (CBM19) closed up by +0.35 (+0.49%). May RBOB gasoline (RBK19) closed up by +0.0304 (+1.49%). The energy complex...

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May WTI crude oil (CLK19) this morning is up by +0.34 (+0.53%) and Jun Brent crude oil (CBM19) is up by +0.38 (+0.53%). May RBOB gasoline (RBK19) is up by +0.0195 (+0.96%). The energy complex is higher...

Natural Gas Prices Fall to a Fresh 2-3/4 Year Low on the Outlook for Increased Supply

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May WTI crude oil (CLK19) on Wednesday closed down by -0.29 (-0.45%) and Jun Brent crude oil (CBM19) closed down by -0.10 (-0.14%). May RBOB gasoline (RBK19) closed up by +0.0101 (+0.50%). Crude prices...

Natural Gas Prices Sink to a 2-3/4 Year Low on the Outlook for Increased Supply

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 1.8626
1st Resistance Point 1.8153
Last Price 1.7680s
1st Support Level 1.7370
2nd Support Level 1.7060

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52-Week High 2.1500
Fibonacci 61.8% 1.9476
Fibonacci 50% 1.8851
Fibonacci 38.2% 1.8225
Last Price 1.7680s
52-Week Low 1.6201

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InsideFutures Commentary

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