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Crude Oil WTI Jun '18 (CLM18)

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cmdty Insider - Crude Oil WTI Market Commentary


Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Friday closed unchanged and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$0.46 (+0.69%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +2.04 cents a gallon (+1.31%). A slide in the dollar index Friday to a 1-week low was a positive factor for the energy complex. Also, confidence that OPEC+ will cut production to avert a global oil glut next year led to pre-weekend short covering after this week's rout took crude prices down to a 1-year low. Finally, geopolitical risks are on the rise after the U.S. on Thursday imposed sanctions against 17 Saudi officials over the death of U.S.-based journalist Khashoggi. Dec WTI crude oil prices gave up its gains and settled unchanged Friday after data from Baker Hughes showed active U.S. oil rigs rose by +2 rigs in the week ended Friday to a 3-1/2 year high of 888 rigs. Crude prices are still being undercut by Thursday's weekly EIA report, which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories surged by +10.27 million bbl to an 11-month high and that U.S. crude production in the week of Nov 9 rose +0.9% w/w to a new all-time high of 11.7 million bpd. U.S. crude oil inventories are currently 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, the highest such level since February.Big Picture Crude Oil Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the reinstatement of full U.S. sanctions on Iran as of Nov 5, although the U.S. gave waivers to 8 countries for up to 1.25 mln bpd of Iranian exports, (2) reduced global oil inventories due to the OPEC+ agreement that began in Jan 2017 to cut production by 1.8 million bpd (1.2 million for OPEC members), and (3) the 50% drop in Venezuelan production seen since 2016. Bearish factors include (1) the OPEC+ move on June 22 to boost production by up to 1 mln bpd to address over-compliance with its production cut agreement, (2) doubts about whether OPEC+ will adopt a large enough production cut agreement for 2019 to offset the expected global oil surplus, and (3) the surge in U.S. oil production to a record high of 11.7 million bpd.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate
Contract Size
1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,905/3,550
First Notice Date
05/24/18
Expiration Date
05/22/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil WTI Jun '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
810,757 (+39,118)
1,230,284 (+12,034)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
561,445 (+6,883)
180,247 (+29,468)
Producers - Long / Short
464,623 (+30,171)
467,862 (+28,670)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
160,171 (-805)
576,459 (-26,388)
Managed Money - Long / Short
244,987 (+3,081)
109,306 (+15,569)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
316,458 (+3,802)
70,941 (+13,899)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
66.85 +7.90%
on 05/01/18
72.83 -0.96%
on 05/22/18
+3.73 (+5.45%)
since 04/20/18
3-Month
59.67 +20.88%
on 03/01/18
72.83 -0.96%
on 05/22/18
+9.88 (+15.87%)
since 02/22/18
52-Week
44.43 +62.35%
on 06/21/17
72.83 -0.96%
on 05/22/18
+20.27 (+39.09%)
since 05/22/17

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Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Friday closed unchanged and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$0.46 (+0.69%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +2.04 cents a gallon (+1.31%). A slide in the dollar index...

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Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) this morning is up +$1.34 (+2.37%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) is up +$1.68 (+2.52%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) is up +3.57 cents a gallon (+2.29%). A slide in the...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 73.22
1st Resistance Point 72.67
Last Price 72.13s
1st Support Level 71.74
2nd Support Level 71.36

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52-Week High 72.83
Last Price 72.13s
Fibonacci 61.8% 61.98
Fibonacci 50% 58.63
Fibonacci 38.2% 55.28
52-Week Low 44.43

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