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10-Year T-Note Dec '18 (ZNZ18)

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10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Close Slightly Higher on a New Low in Inflation Expectations

Sep 10-year T-notes on Friday closed +3 ticks higher, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -1.2 bp to 2.082%. T-note prices on Friday rallied on a weak U.S. consumer sentiment report, safe-haven demand due to US/Iran tensions, and a new 2-3/4 year low in inflation expectations. T-note prices were also boosted by weak global stock markets with the S&P 500 on Friday closing -0.16%, the Euro Stoxx 50 index closing -0.33%, and the Shanghai Composite closing -0.99%. The market is now discounting the odds of a -25 bp rate cut at 25% for next week's FOMC meeting (June 18-19) and at 84% for the following FOMC meeting on July 30-31. T-note prices on Friday were boosted by US/Iran tensions after the U.S. military released a video that it said showed an Iranian patrol boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the attacked tankers. President Trump on Friday blamed on Iran for Thursday's tanker attacks and vowed that Iran will not be allowed to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipments. T-note prices received a boost from weaker inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate on Friday fell sharply to a new 2-3/4 year low of 1.639% and closed -4.1 at 1.641%. T-note prices on Friday were able to shake off the bearish impact of the solid U.S. retail sales and industrial production reports. The May retail sales report was strong at +0.5% m/m for both the headline and ex-autos reports, which was close to expectations of +0.6% headline and +0.4% ex-autos. The U.S. May industrial production report of +0.4% m/m was stronger than expectations of +0.2%. Friday's preliminary-June U.S. consumer sentiment report fell by -2.1 points, although that was line with market expectations. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) market expectations of an 80% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, (2) low U.S. inflation with the U.S. core PCE deflator at only +1.6% y/y, well below the Fed's +2.0% inflation target, (3) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 2-3/4 year low of 1.64%, (4) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (5) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's balance sheet draw-down program that will last through September, and (2) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.
  • US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data.

    Fed rate cut frenzy trade gets dialed back. Gold, bonds, Eurodollar off highs. USD broadly higher. Pressure mounts for ECB to cut rates...

  • Gold Futures Advance to a 14 Month High

    U.S. stock index futures are lower as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected factory data in China and escalating tensions in the Gulf region.

  • Markets Rise Despite

    Yesterday the markets rose despite "attacks" on oil tankers in the Gulf. Will the markets reverse course today? Read on to learn more...

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